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Future changes in landfalling atmospheric rivers in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

Presentation Date
Friday, December 13, 2024 at 1:40pm - Friday, December 13, 2024 at 5:30pm
Location
Convention Center - Hall B-C (Poster Hall)
Authors

Author

Abstract

We assess changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) in the future based on CMIP5 and CMIP6 model’s RCP8.5 and SSP585 projections and their historical simulations by applying the AR metrics package (Dong et al. 2024). An ensemble of 5 AR detectors (ARDTs) are used to identify ARs in climate simulations. Compared to the historical baseline period of 1971-2000, it is shown that ARs in the end of the 21st century (2071-2100) have significantly higher frequency, longer landfall duration and shorter intervals between landfall events over 16 coastal regions across the globe. We also found significant changes in AR landfall seasonality as the duration of the season lasting up to 4 weeks longer, and the peak day shifting up to 8 weeks earlier in the future. With those findings, we investigate changes in dynamical and thermodynamical components of the circulation associated with these ARs.

Category
Atmospheric Sciences
Funding Program Area(s)