Climate Model Development and Validation

Climate Model Development and Validation (CMDV) involves model architecture restructuring, exploiting new software engineering and computational upgrades, and incorporating scale-aware physics in all model components. The research will develop modularized components that can act either alone or as a system able to run on current and next-generation supercomputers, thus allowing greater certainty of predictions in a flexible structure. Because model development requires systematic validation at each step, investment in model assessment and validation is essential.

Examples include the use of ARM data combined with scale-aware large eddy simulation products. High resolution ARM and model ensemble databases will be integrated into the advanced data management infrastructure efforts for use by the scientific research community. Other validation platforms include the sensitivity and uncertainty of climate predictions to explore climate sensitive geographies or processes as well as the representation of extreme events in these next generation models.

Recent Content

Recent Highlights

A rewrite of the atmosphere dynamics component of the whole-Earth, high-resolution, DOE climate model E3SM can now achieve high performance on current and future supercomputers, including exascale-class supercomputers built using thousands of energy-efficient General Purpose Graphics Processing...
In a recent paper, researchers at USDepartment of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory present a short simulation ensemble-based statistical testing framework that indicates that a frozen model configuration of DOE’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) was reproducible after many months of...
Using outgoing longwave radiation and velocity potential anomalies the paper shows links between extreme summertime heat waves over California’s Central Valley (CCV) and tropical convection as identified by specific Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) phase pairs. Strong MJO pairs 8 and 1 or 2 and 3...
It is widely believed that tropical anvil clouds maintain themselves at a fairly constant temperature as Earth warms or cools.  This has become known as the Fixed Anvil Temperature (FAT) hypothesis, and it is argued to stem from basic physics.  But, is the anvil temperature truly temperature-...
In the tropics, the upper troposphere is cloudier, on average, than either the middle or lower troposphere. The conventional paradigm for these clouds attributes their existence to the rapidly-declining convective mass flux below the tropopause, which implies a large source of detraining cloudy air...
The DOE Energy Exascale and Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model (EAM) has undergone significant changes in physics, model resolution, and parameter settings during its development from its version 0 (EAMv0) to version 1 (EAMv1). In particular, it implemented a simplified third-order...
Trends in maximum summertime temperature, moisture, and heat index are tracked over three time periods: 1900–2011, 1950–2011, and 1979–2011; these trends differ notably from annual temperature trends. A warming hole in the Midwest generally decreases in size and magnitude when heat stress trends...
The California Central Valley heat wave synoptic pattern does not change in frequency or intensity from 1961–2000 to 2061–2100 in models. Heat waves are much more frequent and predominantly of one type when using historical thresholds due to the change in the climate “mean”. A multimodel average...
Shallow cumulus clouds – the cotton-ball clouds that drift overhead on partly cloudy days – are hard to observe and, therefore, hard to model and predict.  By deploying a 12-km-diameter ring of cameras, these clouds are now being observed in fine detail using stereo reconstruction.
We derived equations that represent organismal maturation as a function of variable environmental conditions, such as variation in temperature that capture the effects of random variation but which do not require computationally expensive Monte Carlo simulations (replications of variable...

Recent Publications

We present an architecture-portable and performant implementation of the atmospheric dynamical core (High-Order Methods Modeling Environment, HOMME) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). The original Fortran implementation is highly performant and scalable on conventional architectures...
We present a methodology for solution reproducibility for the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) during its ongoing software infrastructure development to prepare for exascale computers. The non-linear chaotic nature of climate system simulations precludes traditional model verification...
This study examines associations between California Central Valley (CCV) heat waves and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). These heat waves have major economic impacts. Our prior work showed that CCV heat waves are frequently preceded by convection over the tropical Indian and eastern Pacific...
Tropical anvil clouds play a large role in Earth’s radiation balance, but their effect on global warming is uncertain. The conventional paradigm for these clouds attributes their existence to the rapidly-declining convective mass flux below the tropopause, which implies a large source of detraining...
This study provides comprehensive insight into the notable differences in clouds and precipitation simulated by the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) atmosphere model version 0 (EAMv0) and version 1 (EAMv1). Several sensitivity experiments are conducted to isolate the impact of changes in...
Warming is a major climate change concern, but the impact of high maximum temperatures depends upon the air’s moisture content. Trends in maximum summertime temperature, moisture, and heat index are tracked over three time periods: 1900–2011, 1950–2011, and 1979–2011; these trends differ notably...
Previous work showed that climate models capture historical large‐scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) associated with California Central Valley heat waves including both ways these heat waves form. This work examines what models predict under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and...
Six cameras along a 12-km-diameter circle are generating a 4D view of clouds at the Southern Great Plains atmospheric observatory in Oklahoma. Newly installed stereo cameras ringing the Southern Great Plains (SGP) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site in Oklahoma are providing a 4D gridded...
Phenology models are becoming increasingly important tools to accurately predict how climate change will impact the life histories of organisms. We propose a class of integral projection phenology models derived from stochastic individual‐based models of insect development and demography. Our...
Atmospheric water-vapor isotopes have been proposed as a potentially powerful constraint on convection, which plays a critical role in Earth's present and future climate. It is shown here, however, that the mean tropical profile of HDO in the free troposphere does not usefully constrain the mean...

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