Biological and Environmental Research - Earth and Environmental System Sciences
Earth and Environmental System Modeling
Read this message from Gary Geernaert, director of the Climate and Environmental Sciences Division within the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Read more

DOE Early Career Program

Recent Content

Recent Highlights

The indirect effect of aerosols on clouds, radiation, and precipitation is one of the most uncertain factors in predicting future global climate change. Aerosol particles act as nuclei for cloud condensation, but their precise effects on clouds and precipitation are very complex for deep convective...
In this study, LLNL authors and colleagues use Large Ensembles (LEs) to quantify the stochastic uncertainty in fingerprint detection time (td) arising from natural internal variability. They determine whether anthropogenic fingerprint detection time in satellite data is within the stochastic...
In this Comment, LLNL scientists and colleagues focus on understanding how the scientific advances arising from the three 40th anniversary events aided efforts to identify human influences on the thermal structure of the atmosphere. The three efforts include the release of the National Academy...
Fingerprint studies use pattern information to separate human and natural influences on climate. Most fingerprint research relies on patterns of climate change that are averaged over years or decades. Few studies probe shorter time scales. Here, LLNL climate scientists and colleagues consider...
The boreal summer MJO has been widely acknowledged for its ability to modulate tropical cyclone (TC) formations in the Northwest Pacific, yet the underlying drivers of this modulation remain uncertain. As a result, there remains an unsatisfying lack of consensus on which phases of the MJO are...
The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets represent the largest and most uncertain contributions to global sea level rise over multidecadal to millennial timescales. The ice sheet model intercomparison project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) brings together the ice sheet and climate modeling communities to gain...
The land surface is a crucial part of the Earth system, and land surface models (LSMs) are key to some of the most important problems facing society today.  But large uncertainty in LSM predictions, and a poor ability to attribute the sources of that uncertainty, mean that new strategies are needed...
Wildfires emit tremendous amounts of gases, aerosols, and sensible heat, which impact environmental temperature and severe convective storms. However, weather forecasting and climate models lack the capability to account for the impact of sensible heat on meteorology and associated severe storms....
The metrics developed here to quantify drought and flood episodes are based on an extended sequent peak algorithm that tracks the dynamic shifts in hydrological behavior of streamflow by accounting for water supply and demand with respect to streamflow. When applied to streamflow reconstructions in...

Recent Publications

Following our previous study of wind shear effect on mesoscale convective system (MCS) organization under a clean atmospheric condition using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with spectral‐bin microphysics, we conduct sensitivity simulations by increasing cloud condensation nuclei...
Large initial condition ensembles of a climate model simulation provide many different realizations of internal variability noise superimposed on an externally forced signal. They have been used to estimate signal emergence time at individual grid points, but are rarely employed to identify global...
Climate science celebrates three 40th anniversaries in 2019: the release of the Charney report, the publication of a key paper on anthropogenic signal detection, and the start of satellite temperature measurements. This confluence of scientific understanding and data led to the identification of...
We provide scientific evidence that a human-caused signal in the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature has emerged from the background noise of natural variability. Satellite data and the anthropogenic “fingerprint” predicted by climate models show common large-scale changes in geographical...
The Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) is widely acknowledged for its ability to modulate Northwest Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs) but a complete understanding of the underlying mechanisms remains uncertain. Beyond established effects of the MJO's relative humidity envelope, other dynamical factors...
The ice sheet model intercomparison project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) effort brings together the ice sheet and climate modeling communities to gain understanding of the ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. ISMIP6 conducts stand-alone ice sheet experiments that use space- and time-varying forcing...
Land surface models (LSMs) are a vital tool for understanding, projecting, and predicting the dynamics of the land surface and its role within the Earth system, under global change. Driven by the need to address a set of key questions, LSMs have grown in complexity from simplified representations...
Wildfires are extreme events associated with weather, climate, and environment and have been increasing globally in frequency, burn season length, and burned area. It is of great interest to understand the impacts of wildfires on severe convective storms through releasing heat and aerosols into the...
This paper presents a new framework for quantitatively identifying, characterizing and analyzing systematic hydrological cycles resulting from streamflow variability in a way that integrates water supply and water de- mand. The hydrological cycles in question are measures of the most severe drought...
A Bayesian model that uses the spatial dependence induced by the river network topology and the leading principal components of regional tree ring chronologies for paleo‐streamflow reconstruction is presented. In any river basin, a convergent, dendritic network of tributaries come together to form...

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