Integrated Multi-sector, Multi-scale Modeling (IM3) Scientific Focus Area

The long-term goals of this scientific focus area (SFA) are to develop a flexible and extensible modeling framework that captures the dynamic multi-scale interactions among climate, energy, water, land, socioeconomics, critical infrastructure, and other sectors and to use this framework to study the vulnerability and resilience of coupled human and natural systems from local to continental scales under scenarios that include short-term shocks, long-term stresses, and feedbacks associated with human decision-making. It will also explore how different model configurations, levels of complexity, multi-model coupling strategies, and spatial and temporal resolutions influence simulation fidelity and the propagation of uncertainties. The first three years of the SFA will focus on systematically building the foundational scientific understanding and computational tools needed to develop and deploy an integrated multi-sector, multi-scale modeling framework, with an emphasis on the climate-energy-water-land nexus. Major research thrust areas include population dynamics, land use and land cover change, and a “deep dive” into energy-water interactions in the western United States. Our approach emphasizes leveraging existing efforts and emerging capabilities, systematically increasing complexity, and engaging with a range of communities to help establish this SFA as a long-term home for cutting-edge climate impact, adaptation, and vulnerability research. Ultimately, our goal is to dramatically improve scientific understanding of how the complex coupled human-Earth system responds to different stresses, which will in turn inform decision-making across a range of sectors and scales.

Project Term: 
2016 to 2019
Project Type: 
Laboratory Funded Research

Publications:

Crop Yield Response to Climate Change Varies With Crop Spatial Distribution Pattern
Demeter – A Land Use and Land Cover Change Disaggregation Model
Emergence of New Hydrologic Regimes of Surface Water Resources in the Conterminous United States under Future Warming
Evaluating Penalized Logistic Regression Models to Predict Heat-Related Electric Grid Stress Days
Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene: Impacts of Local Water Extraction and Reservoir Regulation in the U.S.
Nonlinear Filtering Effects of Reservoirs on Flood Frequency Curves at the Regional Scale
Opportunities for Joint Water–Energy Management: Sensitivity of the 2010 Western U.S. Electricity Grid Operations to Climate Oscillations
Quantifying impacts of heat waves on power grid operation
Reconstruction of Global Gridded Monthly Sectoral Water Withdrawals for 1971–2010 and Analysis of their Spatiotemporal Patterns
Sensitivity of Regulated Flow Regimes to Climate Change in the Western United States
Simulated Building Energy Demand Biases Resulting from the Use of Representative Weather Stations
Simulating County-Level Crop Yields in the Conterminous United States using the Community Land Model: The effects of optimizing irrigation and fertilization
Tethys – A Python Package for Spatial and Temporal Downscaling of Global Water Withdrawals
The Role of Climate Covariability on Crop Yields in the Conterminous United States
Vulnerability of the US western electric grid to hydro-climatological conditions: How bad can it get?

Research Highlights:

A Prognostic Fertilization and Irrigation Module Design for Modeling Bioenergy Crop Agriculture in the Earth System Highlight Presentation
Accounting for Groundwater Use and Return Flow Improves Modeling of Water Management Highlight Presentation
Demeter – A Land Use and Land Cover Change Disaggregation Model Highlight Presentation
Future Climate Warming Induces Emergence of New Hydrologic Regimes of Surface Water Resources in the Conterminous United States Highlight Presentation
How Many Weather Stations are enough to Accurately Simulate Building Energy Demand? Highlight Presentation
Kernels of Knowledge: How Land Use Decisions Affect Crop Productivity Highlight Presentation
Opportunities for Joint Water–Energy Management: Sensitivity of the 2010 Western U.S. Electricity Grid Operations to Climate Oscillations Highlight Presentation
Quantifying Impacts of Heat Waves on Power Grid Operation Highlight Presentation
Reconstruction of Global Gridded Monthly Sectoral Water Withdrawals for 1971-2010 and Analysis of their Spatiotemporal Patterns Highlight Presentation
Reservoir Management Alters Flood Frequency at the Regional Scale Highlight Presentation
Tethys Tackles Downscaling Challenge for Regional Water Withdrawals Highlight Presentation
The Role of Climate Covariability on Bioenergy Crop Yields in the Conterminous United States Highlight Presentation
Vulnerability of Western U.S. Grid Operations to Water Availability: Identified Critical Droughts Highlight Presentation
Water Management Influences Long-Term Changes in River Flows Highlight Presentation
Xanthos – A Global Hydrologic Model Highlight Presentation