Biological and Environmental Research - Earth and Environmental System Sciences
Earth and Environmental System Modeling

Changes in fire weather climatology under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming

TitleChanges in fire weather climatology under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2021
AuthorsSon, Rackhun, Kim Hyungjun, Wang Shin-Yu, Jeong Jee-Hoon, Woo Sung-Ho, Jeong Ji-Yoon, Lee Byung-Doo, Kim Seung Hee, LaPlante Matthew, Kwon Chun-Geun, and Yoon Jin-Ho
JournalEnvironmental Research Letters
Volume16
Number3
Pages034058
Abstract / Summary

The 2015 Paris Agreement led to a number of studies that assessed the impact of the 1.5 ◦C and 2.0 ◦C increases in global temperature over preindustrial levels. However, those assessments have not actively investigated the impact of these levels of warming on fire weather. In view of a recent series of high-profile wildfire events worldwide, we access fire weather sensitivity based on a set of multi-model large ensemble climate simulations for these low-emission scenarios. The results indicate that the half-degree difference between these two thresholds may lead to a significantly increased hazard of wildfire in certain parts of the world, particularly the Amazon, African savanna, and the Mediterranean. Although further experiments focused on human land use are needed to depict future fire activity, considering that rising temperatures are the most influential factor in augmenting the danger of fire weather, limiting global warming to 1.5 ◦C would alleviate some risk in these parts of the world.

URLhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe675
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/abe675
Journal: Environmental Research Letters
Year of Publication: 2021
Volume: 16
Number: 3
Pages: 034058
Publication Date: 03/2021

The 2015 Paris Agreement led to a number of studies that assessed the impact of the 1.5 ◦C and 2.0 ◦C increases in global temperature over preindustrial levels. However, those assessments have not actively investigated the impact of these levels of warming on fire weather. In view of a recent series of high-profile wildfire events worldwide, we access fire weather sensitivity based on a set of multi-model large ensemble climate simulations for these low-emission scenarios. The results indicate that the half-degree difference between these two thresholds may lead to a significantly increased hazard of wildfire in certain parts of the world, particularly the Amazon, African savanna, and the Mediterranean. Although further experiments focused on human land use are needed to depict future fire activity, considering that rising temperatures are the most influential factor in augmenting the danger of fire weather, limiting global warming to 1.5 ◦C would alleviate some risk in these parts of the world.

DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abe675
Citation:
Son, R, H Kim, S Wang, J Jeong, S Woo, J Jeong, B Lee, et al.  2021.  "Changes in fire weather climatology under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming."  Environmental Research Letters 16(3): 034058.  https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe675.