Biological and Environmental Research - Earth and Environmental System Sciences
Earth and Environmental System Modeling

Changes in Precipitation From North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Under RCP Scenarios in the Variable‐Resolution Community Atmosphere Model

TitleChanges in Precipitation From North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Under RCP Scenarios in the Variable‐Resolution Community Atmosphere Model
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2020
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume47
Number12
Abstract / Summary

Decreasing climate models' grid spacing improves the representation of tropical cyclones at decadal time scales. In this study, a variable‐resolution (VR) version of the Community Atmosphere Model 5 (CAM5‐VR) is utilized to study North Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology in ensemble historical climate simulations and under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) projections (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Basin‐wide tropical cyclone counts decrease in the RCP simulations, although landfalling storm counts do not show as straightforward of a pattern, especially when focusing on regional changes. Lifetime maximum intensity metrics suggest that tropical cyclones increase in strength in the RCP ensembles. However, despite increases in tropical cyclone‐related precipitation rates and the amount of precipitation produced per storm with warming, the annual average Rx5day from tropical cyclones over the eastern United States decreases due to less landfalling storms. This work is part of a continued effort to quantify how tropical cyclone‐induced hazards may change in future climates.

URLhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2019gl086930
DOI10.1029/2019gl086930
Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
Year of Publication: 2020
Volume: 47
Number: 12
Publication Date: 06/2020

Decreasing climate models' grid spacing improves the representation of tropical cyclones at decadal time scales. In this study, a variable‐resolution (VR) version of the Community Atmosphere Model 5 (CAM5‐VR) is utilized to study North Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology in ensemble historical climate simulations and under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) projections (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Basin‐wide tropical cyclone counts decrease in the RCP simulations, although landfalling storm counts do not show as straightforward of a pattern, especially when focusing on regional changes. Lifetime maximum intensity metrics suggest that tropical cyclones increase in strength in the RCP ensembles. However, despite increases in tropical cyclone‐related precipitation rates and the amount of precipitation produced per storm with warming, the annual average Rx5day from tropical cyclones over the eastern United States decreases due to less landfalling storms. This work is part of a continued effort to quantify how tropical cyclone‐induced hazards may change in future climates.

DOI: 10.1029/2019gl086930
Citation:
Stansfield, A, K Reed, and C Zarzycki.  2020.  "Changes in Precipitation From North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Under RCP Scenarios in the Variable‐Resolution Community Atmosphere Model."  Geophysical Research Letters 47(12).  https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl086930.