Changes in Tropical Cyclones Under Stabilized 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Global Warming Scenarios as Simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model Under the HAPPI Protocols

TitleChanges in Tropical Cyclones Under Stabilized 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Global Warming Scenarios as Simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model Under the HAPPI Protocols
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2018
JournalEarth System Dynamics Discussions
Pages1-18
Date Published01/2018
Abstract / Summary

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world where anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above pre-industrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios by direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5 °C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.

URLhttp://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-101
DOI10.5194/esd-2017-101
Journal: Earth System Dynamics Discussions
Year of Publication: 2018
Pages: 1-18
Date Published: 01/2018

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world where anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above pre-industrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios by direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5 °C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.

DOI: 10.5194/esd-2017-101
Citation:
Wehner, M.  2018.  "Changes in Tropical Cyclones Under Stabilized 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Global Warming Scenarios as Simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model Under the HAPPI Protocols."  Earth System Dynamics Discussions 1-18.  https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-101.