Increase in the Intensity of Postmonsoon Bay of Bengal Tropical Cyclones

TitleIncrease in the Intensity of Postmonsoon Bay of Bengal Tropical Cyclones
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2014
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Number10
Pages3594-3601
Date Published05/2014
Abstract / Summary

The postmonsoon (October–November) tropical cyclone (TC) season in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) has spawned many of the deadliest storms in recorded history. Here it is shown that the intensity of major TCs (wind speed > 49 m s−1) in the postmonsoon BoB increased during 1981–2010. It is found that changes in environmental parameters are responsible for the observed increases in TC intensity. Increases in sea surface temperature and upper ocean heat content made the ocean more conducive to TC intensification, while enhanced convective instability made the atmosphere more favorable for the growth of TCs. The largest changes in the atmosphere and ocean occurred in the eastern BoB, where nearly all major TCs form. These changes are part of positive linear trends, suggesting that the intensity of postmonsoon BoB TCs may continue to increase in the future.

DOI10.1002/2014GL060197
Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
Year of Publication: 2014
Number: 10
Pages: 3594-3601
Date Published: 05/2014

The postmonsoon (October–November) tropical cyclone (TC) season in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) has spawned many of the deadliest storms in recorded history. Here it is shown that the intensity of major TCs (wind speed > 49 m s−1) in the postmonsoon BoB increased during 1981–2010. It is found that changes in environmental parameters are responsible for the observed increases in TC intensity. Increases in sea surface temperature and upper ocean heat content made the ocean more conducive to TC intensification, while enhanced convective instability made the atmosphere more favorable for the growth of TCs. The largest changes in the atmosphere and ocean occurred in the eastern BoB, where nearly all major TCs form. These changes are part of positive linear trends, suggesting that the intensity of postmonsoon BoB TCs may continue to increase in the future.

DOI: 10.1002/2014GL060197
Citation:
Balaguru, K, S Taraphdar, R Leung, and GR Foltz.  2014.  "Increase in the Intensity of Postmonsoon Bay of Bengal Tropical Cyclones."  Geophysical Research Letters 3594-3601.  https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060197.