Discovering Drought Scenarios for Future Water Planning in Colorado
A new methodology reveals diverse impacts of potential futures in the Upper Colorado River Basin, aiding adaptation planning by analyzing scenario storylines for decadal droughts and water scarcity.
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In our research, we tackle the challenge of planning for future changes in complex systems involving both humans and nature, like river basins. Traditionally, scenario analysis uses a few fixed scenarios, which can miss important details. Our key finding is the introduction of a new framework called FRNSIC, which helps identify and organize diverse future scenarios based on their impacts and dynamics. This framework is applied to the Upper Colorado River Basin, focusing on long-term droughts and water shortages. By exploring various possible drought scenarios, we can better plan for future water management and adapt to changing conditions.
This research provides insights into how future droughts might affect water systems, such as the Upper Colorado River Basin, by introducing a novel method called FRNSIC. This method is groundbreaking as it uniquely combines various approaches to assess potential future scenarios and their impacts. It is crucial for understanding how changes in water availability could influence different users, from farmers to urban water suppliers. The innovative aspect lies in its ability to organize and analyze a wide range of possible future conditions, aiding scientists and planners in identifying key scenarios. Additionally, this research can influence fields like environmental science and public policy by offering improved strategies for addressing future water shortages.
We introduce the FRamework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC), a novel scenario discovery framework designed to address the complexities in managing human-natural systems under change. Traditional scenario analysis often misses critical dynamics and stakeholder impacts by focusing on a limited set of predetermined scenarios. In contrast, FRNSIC organizes and investigates a wide range of potential futures using hierarchical classification of diverse outcomes across actors, sectors, and scales. This framework aids in selecting scenario storylines based on system dynamics that drive significant outcomes, thereby providing actionable insights for adaptation planning.
We apply FRNSIC to the Upper Colorado River Basin, focusing on decadal droughts and their implications for water scarcity. By exploring alternative impact metrics and drought dynamics, we identify scenario storylines with significant impacts, which can inform future planning efforts. This approach allows stakeholders to understand the diverse impacts of potential future conditions and make informed decisions about adaptation strategies. The framework's ability to incorporate a broad range of scenarios and impacts makes it a valuable tool for addressing the deep uncertainties and complex interactions inherent in human-natural systems.