How the last 40 years of US tropical cyclones may change under future climates
Schematic of the modeling framework showing Hurricane Katrina simulated under historical (a) and future (b) climates, along with the resulting increase in precipitable water (c-e) in the warmer simulation.
Colin Zarzycki, Penn State University
We studied how tropical cyclones near the U.S. might change under future warming by reforecasting 40 years of historical tropical storms and comparing them to modified versions of themselves under projected thermodynamic environments. Our findings suggest that while most storms become wetter and slightly stronger under future projections, storm-to-storm responses are surprisingly variable. Rapid intensification and weakening also become more frequent, complicating forecasts.
This research is critical for improving future tropical cyclone predictions, especially as warming climates are expected to increase the intensity and variability of storms. Understanding these changes can help inform better preparedness strategies for coastal communities, minimizing damage and enhancing early warning systems.
In this study, we used high-resolution regional climate simulations to compare 40 years of historical tropical cyclones with projected future storms under different warming scenarios. We curated a dataset of over 4,000 matched storm instances, allowing us to examine how these storms evolve with increasing temperatures. The results indicate that most storms in future warming scenarios will carry more moisture and be more intense, but the response varies from storm to storm. Notably, the frequency of rapid intensification and rapid weakening increases across all warming scenarios, suggesting that future storms may have greater short-term intensity fluctuations, complicating forecasts. This research aids our understanding of how tropical cyclones will behave as the climate warms, providing vital information for improving hurricane preparedness, disaster management and long-term planning, especially for regions vulnerable to tropical cyclones.