Biological and Environmental Research - Earth and Environmental System Sciences
Earth and Environmental System Modeling

Analysis of Climatic Impacts to Connected Infrastructure Dynamics: Technology Insertion

Monday, May 12, 2014 - 07:00
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This poster describes recent work to incorporate issues of connected infrastructure dynamics modeling (CIDM) into the DOE-funded integrated assessment modeling (IAM). In particular is the interest in developing analysis methods to explicitly incorporate the medium to long-term impacts of climate change on connected infrastructures. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has focused effort on the development of a technology insertion and development profile to be applied to infrastructure models. A common approach to modeling the evolution of a technology is a trade study, where several experts on that technology combine their subjective insights to predict its evolution. In this project we are formulating a quantitative approach to predicting technology evolution, which will combine historical data sets with formalized versions of the insights of domain experts. Efforts have focused on modeling potential technology changes bounded by demand polygons assigned to infrastructure assets; the location of interest has been identified as an emerging point of electric transmission congestion near Champaign Illinois.

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