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Analyzing storylines of extreme precipitation associated with Hurricane Ida

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Abstract

Gaining insights into the impact of climate change on the occurrence of intense downpours associated with hurricanes is essential for building climate-resilient communities. This work initiates storyline simulations, i.e., actual and counterfactual (delta change of warming signal) of a recent storm Ida’s rainfall before and after the landfall (27th - 31st August, 2021) using every 12-hr initializations of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) variable resolution grid (~28 km over North Atlantic basin and ~100 km global, 30 vertical levels), the atmospheric component of Community Earth System Model along with the storm tracks and associated precipitation. Next we investigate changes in probability of an Ida-like event from present day (actual) to end of century (2060-2099) considering shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP585 and SSP245) leveraging observations, (Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily, GHCN-Daily, 1950-2015), model reanalysis (Weather Research and Forecasting, WRF (1980-2019, 12 km grid/3 hours), and future projections (produced by thermodynamically modifying the WRF reanalysis with warming signals derived from shared socioeconomic pathways SSP585 and SSP245) for 40 years simulations from 2060-2099. Integrating ground observations and models (historical and future projections modified by thermodynamic components) into a generalized extreme values framework allows for the characterization of heavy rains from  hurricanes in plausible future scenarios. Preliminary findings show that extreme rain rates from hurricane Ida (2021) are expected to be ~2-11 times more likely at the end of the century in SSP585. Ongoing work includes ensemble creation for actual and counterfactual simulations to better assess changes in storm precipitation and incorporate storyline simulations into probabilistic framework. This work underscores the effectiveness of utilizing atmospheric models to build storylines of recent major Atlantic hurricanes, while considering thermodynamic changes in the distant future as a viable approach for understanding changing characteristics of extreme weather events. 

Category
Extremes Events
Strengthening EESM Integrated Modeling Framework – Towards a Digital Earth
Water Cycle and Hydroclimate
Metrics, Benchmarks and Credibility of model output and data for science and end users
Funding Program Area(s)
Additional Resources:
NERSC (National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center)