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Assessing Future Terrestrial Water Stress Under Dynamic Changes of Climate, Urban, and Land System Over the Continental United States

Presentation Date
Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 8:30am - Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 8:36am
MC - eLightning Theater II, Hall D - South



Water stress is projected to intensify and develop unevenly across regions due to the warming climate and changes in land use and land cover (LULCC). This research aims to enhance our understanding of future terrestrial water stress in the Continental United States (CONUS) by considering the combined impacts of climate change and LULCC under a range of integrated climate scenarios and socioeconomic pathways. To achieve this, we have developed a coupled multisector, multiscale modeling framework consisting of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), and Community Land Model (CLM), along with advanced downscaling tools that harmonize models and data from different scales to a consistent 1/8° spatial resolution. We use this WRF-GCAM-CLM framework for scenario-driven, long-term simulations of terrestrial system at a 1/8° spatial resolution and the hourly timescale over the CONUS. Distinct from prior research, our framework uniquely incorporates dynamic urban expansion projections from the Spatially-Explicit, Long-term, Empirical City developmenT (SELECT) model, harmonized with other LULCC. In anticipation of future carbon management strategies, we have included scenarios projecting a spectrum of bioenergy crop expansion. By employing this framework and maintaining consistent scenario development across core models, our goal is to provide valuable insights into future water stress across the CONUS and identify underlying causes of change, thereby facilitating informed decision-making and sustainable water resource management.

Funding Program Area(s)