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Effects of Global Energy-economic Change on Hydropower Expansion in Eco-sensitive River Basins

Presentation Date
Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 9:10am - Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 9:20am
Location
MC - 3010 - West
Authors

Author

Abstract

Vast hydropower resources are still untapped, particularly in the world’s emerging economies, deployment of which could provide energy-economic benefits but also affect riverine ecosystems. It is unclear how rapid economic growth and transition to low-carbon energy may impact hydropower development, with potential countervailing effects of increasingly cost-competitive variable renewable energy (VRE). Using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), an integrated model of global energy-water-economy dynamics, we explore the effects of these forces on hydropower expansion in the world's 20 most eco-sensitive river basins, that have high untapped hydropower potential and ecological richness. We find that a transition to low-carbon technologies exerts the strongest development pressure, causing over 80% deployment of exploitable potential in more than 72% of the eco-sensitive basins by 2050, while rapid economic growth causes such deployment in 44% of the basins. Enhanced integration of VRE helps reduce deployment levels, which mostly alleviates the hydro deployment associated with rapid economic growth, but not that from the low-carbon transition. Our results also show large uncertainties in the level of mid-century deployment in several basins, including the Ganges, Amazon, Nile, and Mekong -- indicating opportunities to explore strategic planning and alternative techniques aimed at balancing tradeoffs between sustainable development objectives, including clean energy and the health of freshwater ecosystems.

Category
Hydrology
Funding Program Area(s)