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Evaluation of future urban land expansion given multisectoral pressures using a global integrated human-Earth system model

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Abstract

Future urban area expansion is one of the most important anthropogenic activities that has an irreversible effect on the earth’s land surface. Urban land is projected to increase significantly in the future, with some estimates suggesting that urban built-up area could make up 3.5 million km2 of the Earth’s surface by the end of the century. Such an increase in urbanization can significantly affect food and energy systems by affecting land availability. Here, we implement an endogenous urbanization model in a state-of-the-art global multisectoral dynamics model, the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). With our updates, GCAM can now endogenously calculate the cost of achieving future urbanization demand subject to several multisectoral pressures. We implement a range of scenarios in GCAM to test the implications of future urbanization, which include alternative demands of urban land, alternative socioeconomic scenarios and alternative energy transition scenarios. We find that the cost of future urbanization is heterogenous across scenarios and regions with energy transition scenarios, such as adoption of bioenergy, increasing the cost of urbanization significantly across regions by the end of the century. Increasing urbanization can also have a small but significant effect on food and energy prices in some regions, with crop and biomass prices increasing by up to 10% by the end of the century due to increasing urban land. 

Category
Urban
Methods in Model Integration, Hierarchical Modeling, Model Complexity
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