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How does crop production adapt with groundwater restrictions in the West?

Presentation Date
Wednesday, August 7, 2024 at 2:45pm - Wednesday, August 7, 2024 at 3:05pm
Authors

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Abstract

Unsustainable groundwater extraction has led to serious water supply and land subsidence issues in the US West. Most states have imposed strict groundwater regulations including the 2014 passage of California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA). What will restricting unsustainable groundwater extraction do to crop production in the US West? In this paper, we couple a hydrology model, crop model, land-use model, and economic model to explore farmers’ optimal adaptive strategy for coping with water stress enhanced by stricter groundwater extraction limits. We find that the optimal adaptive response is spatially heterogeneous and comprises a portfolio of strategies including (a) deficit irrigation; (b) changes in irrigated cropland; (c) the movement of crop production to other states; and (d) a fall in the total production of crops in the US West, balanced by increased production in other US states and abroad. This work emphasizes the importance of system feedbacks and how deficit irrigation and interstate trade can help mitigate the full brunt of impacts to crop production.

Category
Energy, Water, and Land System Transition
Impacts, Tipping Points and Systems Responses and Resilience
Local/Regional Testbeds – an Integrative Framework for Multidisciplinary Model Development and Applications
Funding Program Area(s)