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How well do HighResMIP models represent landfalling tropical cyclones?

Presentation Date
Thursday, December 15, 2022 at 2:45pm - Thursday, December 15, 2022 at 6:15pm
McCormick Place - Poster Hall, Hall A



Tropical cyclones (TCs) are some of the most high-impact weather events that affect low-mid latitudes. There are several pressing questions regarding how the changing climate will affect the behavior of TCs. Changes in TC trajectories, intensity, and size can have important implications for areas vulnerable to storm impacts; therefore, it is necessary for both the public and emergency managers to be well-informed of the risk potential of their area and how it will change over the coming decades. As such, it is important for climate models to skillfully represent TC climatology and for users to understand strengths and limitations of applying such data.

In this presentation, we discuss the development of an algorithmic workflow that mines climate model TC trajectories from commonly used Lagrangian software packages (such as TempestExtremes and TRACK) for landfalls. Associated metrics include time and location of landfall, as well as storm intensity, translation speed, and genesis region. As a proof-of-concept, we corroborate observed landfalls using both IBTrACS and reanalysis storm tracks. We then evaluate landfall statistics computed in the free-running, historical simulations following High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) protocols. This work supplements prior evaluations that focused on general storm climatology and provides more granular impacts-focused information to stakeholders who require data at regional scales.

Funding Program Area(s)