Impacts of historic and projected land-cover, land-use, and land-management change on carbon and water fluxes: The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP)

Thursday, December 14, 2017 - 16:15
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Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to intensify to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) aims to further advance understanding of the broad question of impacts of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) as well as more detailed science questions to get at process-level attribution, uncertainty, and data requirements in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date. LUMIP is multi-faceted and aims to advance our understanding of land-use change from several perspectives. In particular, LUMIP includes a factorial set of land-only simulations that differ from each other with respect to the specific treatment of land use or land management (e.g., irrigation active or not, crop fertilization active or not, wood harvest on or not), or in terms of prescribed climate. This factorial series of experiments serves several purposes and is designed to provide a detailed assessment of how the specification of land-cover change and land management affects the carbon, water, and energy cycle response to land-use change. The potential analyses that are possible through this set of experiments are vast. For example, comparing a control experiment with all land management active to an experiment with no irrigation allows a multi-model assessment of whether or not the increasing use of irrigation during the 20th century is likely to have significantly altered trends of regional water and energy fluxes (and therefore climate) and/or crop yield and carbon fluxes in agricultural regions. Here, we will present preliminary results from the factorial set of experiments utilizing the Community Land Model (CLM5). The analyses presented here will help guide multi-model analyses once the full set of LUMIP simulations are available.

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