Minerals are indispensable building blocks for various energy technologies. A future energy system transition characterized by electrification and deployment of renewable energy and storage technologies will substantially increase mineral demand^1,2. However, the future mineral supplies may not respond fast enough due to supply-chain issues^3–6 which could constrain the availability of sufficient and stable mineral supplies to meet their escalating demands. In this work, we are developing a new capability in the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to quantify a full-sector mineral demand endogenously and evaluating the effect of mineral supply constraints on the energy system evolution.

A total of 13 minerals are modelled in GCAM, including iron (in the form of steel), aluminum (Al), copper (Cu), silicon (Si), lithium (Li), cobalt (Co), nickel (Ni), manganese (Mn), neodymium (Nd), tellurium (Te), vanadium (V), platinum (Pt), and graphite. We represent the demand for these minerals across multiple sectors (e.g., electric power system, transport, electronic, and others) based on material use intensity and technology deployment. We also impose exogenous future projections of mineral supplies as ceiling constraints in the model to evaluate how future energy system may evolve under different material supply scenarios.

Our recent work focusing on the power sector shows that mineral demand (of the minerals being modelled here and assuming future mineral supplies are unlimited) of the global power sector technologies increases by 1.5 and 2.6 times from 2020 to 2050 under different energy system transition scenarios. However, if future supplies of these modelled minerals in the global power sector are constrained to historical growth rates, the cumulative new capacity addition of electricity generation and storage technologies (from 2020 to 2050, globally) could be reduced by nearly half under a low-carbon transition scenario. We are currently expanding this capability to other key sectors and trying to evaluate a full-sector mineral demand and explore potential sectoral interactions under different mineral supply scenarios.  

Reference

1.            Månberger, A. & Stenqvist, B. Global metal flows in the renewable energy transition: Exploring the effects of substitutes, technological mix and development. Energy Policy 119, 226–241 (2018).

2.            Dominish, E., Florin, N. & Teske, S. Responsible minerals sourcing for renewable energy. Report prepared for Earthworks by the Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney (2019).

3.            Latham, E., Kilbey, B. & Ehtaiba, A. Lithium supply is set to triple by 2025. Will it be enough? S&p Glob. (2019).

4.            Paul Manalo. Discovery to production averages 15.7 years for 127 mines. S&P Global (2023).

5.            Nassar, N. T., Graedel, T. E. & Harper, E. M. By-product metals are technologically essential but have problematic supply. Science Advances 1, e1400180 (2015).

6.            Survey, U. G. Mineral Commodity Summaries, 2022. (Government Printing Office, 2022).