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Quantifying the compound hazard: Freezing rain-icing-wind gusts (FZG)

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Abstract

Freezing rain (FZ) - ice accumulation and high magnitude wind gusts (G) pose a major hazard to critical infrastructure and travel. Few studies have sought to robustly describe such events in the contemporary climate, or to diagnose geophysical causes or to explore how this hazard may evolve in a changing climate. Initial goals of this work are to address the first two knowledge gaps and are thus to generate and evaluate a geospatial atlas of this compound hazard including long return period assessments and to develop geophysical storylines of historical events. An energy balance model is applied to 1-minute data reports from 883 Automated Surface Observing Station (ASOS) to generate ice accumulation estimates and combined with wind gust observations to derive damage estimates using the Sperry-Piltz Ice Accumulation (SPIA) risk index, ranging from 1 (slight damage risk) to 5 (catastrophic damage risk). High magnitude events are shown to be most frequent events in an arc extending from Texas to the upper Midwest and Great Lakes and across the Northeast, with secondary peaks in the South along the Appalachian Mountains and along the Cascade Mountains in the Pacific Northwest. Individual “predicted” events are validated using NOAA storm reports and to contextualize the synoptic drivers of storyline events using ERA5 output. Extreme value theory statistics are used to generate 50-year return period event magnitudes for each state and NWS county warning area.

Category
Metrics, Benchmarks and Credibility of model output and data for science and end users
Extremes Events
Urban
Funding Program Area(s)