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Quantifying global photosynthesis and CO2 fertilization with machine learning and eddy covariance measurements

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Abstract

Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration enhances global photosynthesis, a phenomenon known as the CO2 fertilization effect, which substantially mitigates climate change. Despite its importance, significant discrepancies exist between satellite-based estimations and Terrestrial Biosphere Models (TBMs) simulations in quantifying CO2 fertilization and photosynthesis. These uncertainties hinder a robust assessment of terrestrial carbon dynamics and future predictions.

Here, using machine learning, global eddy covariance measurements, and satellite remote sensing data, we evaluate CO2 fertilization and develop predictive models to quantify Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), or ecosystem photosynthesis, from 1982 to 2020. Our results reveal a widespread positive effect of elevated CO2 on photosynthesis, while standard satellite-based data products underestimate these impacts due to a neglect of the direct CO2 effects on photosynthetic light use efficiency. By incorporating these direct CO2 effects, our estimates demonstrate improved consistency with TBMs from the TRENDY ensemble regarding GPP long-term dynamics. Our work reconciles the discrepancy between satellite and TBM estimations of photosynthesis, providing a robust benchmark for Earth system models and important constraints to the global carbon cycle.

Category
Biogeochemistry (Processes and Feedbacks)
Innovative and Emerging technologies: ML/AI, Digital Earth, Exascale and Quantum Computing, advanced software infrastructures
Funding Program Area(s)