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Scenario forcings for CMIP7

Presentation Date
Monday, December 11, 2023 at 9:40am - Monday, December 11, 2023 at 9:50am
Location
MC - 2022-2024- West
Authors

Author

Abstract

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary place within CMIP where plausible future emissions and land use scenarios are run through Earth System Models (ESMs). In CMIP6, ScenarioMIP developed an experimental design that include four Tier 1 scenarios, five Tier 2 scenarios, plus a large ensemble and several long-term extensions on a multi-century timescale. ESM simulations based on these scenarios underpin a large number of studies and were assessed in the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report.

ScenarioMIP is currently in the process of developing a proposal for the next set of scenarios to be run as part of CMIP7, which will be the basis for future forcing datasets used as ESM inputs. Plans are being developed with the collaboration of the CMIP community and the broader research, user, and stakeholder communities. We describe the current status of the plans for a proposal, including the rationales for a range of potential scenarios. We discuss the choice of emissions versus concentration-driven simulations, recommended ensemble sizes, and possible long-term extensions to the scenarios. We also sketch an aspirational timeline for the production of the scenarios and forcing datasets.

Category
Global Environmental Change
Funding Program Area(s)