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Sensitivity of Coastal Urban Areas to Extreme Sea Level Events Under Climate Change

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Abstract

As part of the ICoM/MSD effort this year, we developed a library of projected coastal inundation areas for extreme sea level events resulting in surges of between 0.5m and 6m. The library covers the entire Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the U.S. from Texas to Maine. Using this library, we are able to analyze the sensitivity of both inundated areas and the associated population impacts to changes in the projected magnitude of extreme sea level events. Analysis of this data set yields regionally distinct patterns along the eastern seaboard, both in terms of the level of rise that may become problematic and the sensitivity of urban areas and populations to incremental changes beyond that. The characteristics of these sensitivity curves can differ significantly from region to region along the coast. This work helps to quantify the regionally-specific levels of extreme sea level rise that may indicate tipping points beyond which risks begin to increase dramatically, as well as how sensitive these different areas are to those incremental increases. It also serves as an aid to other weather and climatology focused efforts, providing a means by which error/variability in extreme sea level projections may be translated to uncertainty in other key metrics, such as those characterizing the populations or critical infrastructure systems at risk, thus translating inches or feet into more directly impactful metrics.

Category
Coastal
Extremes Events
Model Uncertainties, Model Biases, and Fit-for-Purpose
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