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Sparse Polynomial Chaos Surrogate for ACME Land Model via Iterative Bayesian Compressive Sensing

Presentation Date
Friday, December 18, 2015 at 11:50am - Friday, December 18, 2015 at 12:05pm
Location
Moscone West - 3014
Authors

Author

Abstract

For computationally expensive climate models, Monte-Carlo approaches of exploring the input parameter space are often prohibitive due to slow convergence with respect to ensemble size. To alleviate this, we build inexpensive surrogates using uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods employing Polynomial Chaos (PC) expansions that approximate the input-output relationships using as few model evaluations as possible. However, when many uncertain input parameters are present, such UQ studies suffer from the curse of dimensionality. In particular, for 50-100 input parameters non-adaptive PC representations have infeasible numbers of basis terms. To this end, we develop and employ Weighted Iterative Bayesian Compressive Sensing to learn the most important input parameter relationships for efficient, sparse PC surrogate construction with posterior uncertainty quantified due to insufficient data. Besides drastic dimensionality reduction, the uncertain surrogate can efficiently replace the model in computationally intensive studies such as forward uncertainty propagation and variance-based sensitivity analysis, as well as design optimization and parameter estimation using observational data. We applied the surrogate construction and variance-based uncertainty decomposition to Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) Land Model for several output QoIs at nearly 100 FLUXNET sites covering multiple plant functional types and climates, varying 65 input parameters over broad ranges of possible values.

Presentation File(s)
sargsyan_agu15.pdf (1.88 MB)
Category
Permafrost Hydrology
Funding Program Area(s)