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Unraveling the Tapestry of Extreme Precipitation from a Seasonality Perspective

Presentation Date
Wednesday, December 13, 2023 at 8:30am - Wednesday, December 13, 2023 at 12:50pm
Location
MC - Poster Hall A-C - South
Authors

Author

Abstract

In this talk, the speaker delves into the rising prevalence of extreme precipitation events, including torrential rains, prolonged downpours, heatwaves, and droughts, with a special emphasis on timing and seasonality. The focus is on fostering comprehensive scientific research that complements traditional statistical analysis. The fundamental driver of these weather events, the seasonal progression of atmospheric circulation, is highlighted. East Asia serves as a case study to illustrate the complex interplay between significant land-sea contrasts, powerful monsoon systems, and Pacific subtropical anticyclones, adding richness to our understanding of how extreme rainfall and drought can seemingly coexist. South Asia is used as an example to demonstrate how heatwaves and substantial storms can occur in quick succession. We explore the intertwining of mesoscale convective systems within instability zones of both frontal and tropical origins, as well as the emergence of heatwaves and sporadic droughts amidst these events. It is proposed that an amplified monsoonal circulation system intensifies all precipitation events embedded within it. Drawing from examples in South and East Asia, we draw parallels with the recent increase in precipitation extremes over North America, such as the deluges in the western and southern United States that occur interspersed with droughts. These events are associated with the well-understood natural progression of rainy seasons and can potentially be anticipated through (sub-)seasonal prediction. However, the degree of this amplification remains unknown, emphasizing the need for continued scientific exploration to deepen our understanding of these phenomena and prepare for future climate risks.

Category
Atmospheric Sciences
Funding Program Area(s)