Climate Change Modeling research will improve understanding and the ability to simulate the pace and magnitude of future greenhouse gas emissions, as well as the impacts of climate change on human and natural Earth systems with particular emphasis on interactions between energy technology, climate, and the interactions of human decision-making, agricultural and forestry systems and the natural Earth system. This research will help provide the scientific basis to make and bound forecasts of future emissions to the atmosphere of carbon dioxide and other radiatively important gases, emphasizing the role energy plays in the process, and share this information through open source, community-based modeling using PNNL's Global Climate Assessment Model (GCAM).

We will use our regional models applied to China to (1) improve understanding and modeling of human influence, including aerosols and land-use change, on regional climate and hydrological cycles, and (2) improve methodology to represent adaptation and mitigation options for agriculture in response to climate change and the associated impacts on greenhouse gas emissions. We will improve and apply the EPIC comprehensive terrestrial ecosystem model to simulate climate impacts on agriculture and investigate how agricultural production can adapt to climate change through land management and how that may affect a region's potential to produce bioenergy crops.