Water Cycle and Climate Extremes Modeling

Despite the emergence of some robust understanding of global precipitation changes in a warmer climate, uncertainty in predicting regional precipitation in the future remain large because the thermodynamical and dynamical processes that govern the changes in large-scale circulation and regional clouds and precipitation are not well understood and represented in Earth system models. To advance predictive understanding of water cycle processes and hydrologic extremes, and their changes in a warming climate, this Scientific Focus Area (SFA) addresses three overarching science questions:

  • How do large-scale circulation features modulate regional mean and extreme precipitation, and how will they change in the future?
  • What processes control mesoscale-organized convection and associated warm season regional mean and extreme precipitation as well as their changes in a warmer climate?
  • What are the robust multiscale connections between atmospheric circulation features and water cycle processes, and how do they influence regional precipitation?

Building on recent advances in modeling frameworks, computational resources, and physical understanding of the climate system, we will address our science questions using a non-hydrostatic multi-resolution global modeling framework for convection-permitting simulations and the DOE Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) for coupled climate simulations. We will develop diagnostic/analysis methods combined with numerical experiments and observations for research on three interconnected elements that synergistically:

  • investigate the governing mechanisms of monsoon systems and moisture sources and transport pathway of atmospheric rivers and their linkages with jet stream and wave breaking
  • study the relative atmosphere and land-surface control on mesoscale convective systems in the United States and Amazon, and explore their response to a warming climate and implications to extreme precipitation
  • examine multiscale interactions between monsoon and convection, and how aerosols and greenhouse gases impact the South Asian monsoon and its connection with tropical cyclones.

Aligning with the Biological and Environmental Research’s (BER’s) objectives, the proposed research will 1) inform the design of next-generation Earth system models with sub-10 km resolution; 2) demonstrate effective use of unique DOE facilities such as leadership-class computing and long-term observing capabilities (e.g., ARM); and 3) evaluate and advance the use of the DOE ACME for water cycle research.

Project Term: 
2016 to 2018
Project Type: 
Laboratory Funded Research

Publications:

Large Contribution of Coarse Mode to Aerosol Microphysical and Optical Properties: Evidence from Ground-based Observations of a Trans-Pacific Dust Outbreak at a High-Elevation North American Site
A case study of urbanization impact on summer precipitation in the Greater Beijing Metropolitan Area: Urban heat island versus aerosol effects
A Comparative Analysis of the Impacts of Climate Change and Irrigation on Land Surface and Subsurface Hydrology in the North China Plain
A meridional dipole in premonsoon Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone activity induced by ENSO
A projection of changes in landfalling atmospheric river frequency and extreme precipitation over western North America from the Large Ensemble CESM simulations
Application of an Online-Coupled Regional Climate Model, WRF-CAM5, over East Asia for Examination of Ice Nucleation Schemes: Part I. Comprehensive Model Evaluation and Trend Analysis for 2006 and 2011
Application of an Online-Coupled Regional Climate Model, WRF-CAM5, over East Asia for Examination of Ice Nucleation Schemes: Part II. Sensitivity to Heterogeneous Ice Nucleation Parameterizations and Dust Emissions
Aridity changes in the Tibetan Plateau in a warming climate
Changes in Temporal Variability of Precipitation over Land Due to Anthropogenic Forcings
Derivation of an Observation-based Map of North African Dust Emission
Dynamic Potential Intensity: An improved representation of the ocean's impact on tropical cyclones
Effects of cloud condensation nuclei and ice nucleating particles on precipitation processes and supercooled liquid in mixed-phase orographic clouds
Establishing a Numerical Modeling Framework for Hydrologic Engineering Analyses of Extreme Storm Events
Examining the Hydrological Variations in an Aquaplanet World Using Wave Activity Transformation
Exploring a Multi-resolution Approach Using AMIP Simulations
Exploring the Effects of a Nonhydrostatic Dynamical Core in High-resolution Aquaplanet Simulations
Exploring the Impacts of Physics and Resolution on Aqua-Planet Simulations from A Non-hydrostatic Global Variable-Resolution Modeling Framework
Geophysical Research Letters
Global Warming-Induced Upper-Ocean Freshening and the Intensification of Super Typhoons
High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6
Influence of dynamic vegetation on carbon-nitrogen cycle feedback in the Community Land Model (CLM4)
Investigating the zonal wind response to SST warming using transient ensemble AGCM experiments
Linkages of Remote Sea Surface Temperatures and Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Mediated by the African Monsoon
Local Finite-Amplitude Wave Activity as an Objective Diagnostic of Midlatitude Extreme Weather
Mechanisms Contributing to Suppressed Precipitation in Mt. Hua of Central China, Part I - Mountain Valley Circulation
Modelling of Long-Range Transport of Southeast Asia Biomass-Burning Aerosols to Taiwan and their Radiative Forcings over East Asia
Moist Process Biases in Simulations of the Madden–Julian Oscillation Episodes Observed during the AMIE/DYNAMO Field Campaign
More Frequent Intense and Long-Lived Storms Dominate the Springtime Trend in Central US Rainfall
Persistent Cold Air Outbreaks over North America in a Warming Climate
Projected Changes in Mean and Interannual Variability of Surface Water over Continental China
Prolonged El Niño conditions in 2014–2015 and the rapid intensification of Hurricane Patricia in the eastern Pacific
Regional Downscaling of S2S Prediction: Past Lessons and Future Prospects
Resolution and Dynamical Core Dependence of Atmospheric River Frequency in Global Model Simulations
Satellite Sounder Retrievals of Contrasting Moisture Transport Regimes: Saharan Air Layers, Hadley Cells, and Atmospheric Rivers
Sensitivity of U.S. summer precipitation to model resolution and convective parameterizations across gray zone resolutions
Sources and pathways of the upscale effects on the Southern Hemisphere jet in MPAS-CAM4 variable-resolution simulations
Sources of Errors in the Simulation of South Asian Summer Monsoon in the CMIP5 GCMs
Substantial Contribution of Anthropogenic Air Pollution to Catastrophic Floods in Southwest China
Tangent linear superparameterization of convection in a 10-layer global atmosphere with calibrated climatology
The De‑Correlation of Westerly Winds and Westerly‑Wind Stress over the Southern Ocean during the Last Glacial Maximum
The Fertilizing Role of African Dust in the Amazon Rainforest: A First Multiyear Assessment Based on CALIPSO Lidar Observations
The Tropical Rain Belts with an Annual Cycle and a Continent Model Intercomparison Project: TRACMIP
Towards the Dynamical Convergence on the Jet Stream in Aquaplanet AGCMs
Trans-Pacific transport and evolution of aerosols: evaluation of quasi-global WRF-Chem simulation with multiple observations
Uncertainty in Future Projections of the North Pacific Subtropical High and its Implication for California Winter Precipitation Change
Understanding the El Niño‑like Oceanic Response in the Tropical Pacific to Global Warming
Understanding the Indian Ocean response to double CO2
Urbanization-induced urban heat island and aerosol effects on climate extremes in the Yangtze River Delta region of China
Water
Water Balance in the Amazon Basin from a Land Surface Model Ensemble

Research Highlights:

A Comparative Analysis of the Impacts of Climate Change and Irrigation on Land Surface and Subsurface Hydrology in the North China Plain Highlight
A Novel, Finite-Amplitude Wave Activity Transformation Reveals New Insights on Water Cycle Variations and Extremes Highlight Presentation
A Promising Venue to Improve the Realism of Precipitation Simulations at a Continental Scale Highlight Presentation
Ahoy Aquaplanet: Identifying Model Resolution Shortcomings Highlight
Air Pollution Amplified Extreme Weather, Floods in China Highlight Presentation
Aridity Changes in the Tibetan Plateau in a Warming Climate Highlight Presentation
Atmospheric Bit Players Take Stage Highlight
Atmospheric Rivers, Finely Modeled Highlight Presentation
Bay of Bengal May-June Cyclones Grow Stronger in the North, Weaker in the South Highlight Presentation
Beyond Boundaries: Remote Heat Rouses Hurricanes Highlight Presentation
Brewing Up a Storm Highlight
Capturing the Relationship between Environmental Moisture and Precipitation: Important for Simulating the Madden-Julian Oscillation Highlight Presentation
Cold Snaps Linger Despite Climate Change Highlight Presentation
Cooler Days, Warmer Nights Highlight Presentation
Decreased Upper Ocean Salinity Helps Intensify Super Typhoons Highlight Presentation
Delving into Model Resolution Impacts: The High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6 Highlight Presentation
Derivation of an Observation-Based Map of North African Dust Emission Highlight
Developing Simplified Tools to Understand the Relationship Between Convection and Large-Scale Circulation Highlight Presentation
Dynamical Convergence on the Jet Stream in Aquaplanet AGCMs Highlight Presentation
Establishing a Numerical Modeling Framework for Hydrologic Engineering Analyses of Extreme Storm Events Highlight Presentation
Evaluating a Chemistry-Coupled Regional Climate Model and Its Sensitivity to Ice Nucleation Representation over East Asia Highlight Presentation
Evaluating a Chemistry-Coupled Regional Climate Model and Its Sensitivity to Ice Nucleation Representation over East Asia Highlight Presentation
Exploring a Multi-resolution Approach Using AMIP Simulations Highlight Presentation
Exploring the Effects of Nonhydrostatic Formulation of Atmospheric Motions in High-Resolution All-Ocean Simulations Highlight Presentation
Exploring the Impacts of Physics and Resolution on Aqua-Planet Simulations from a Non-Hydrostatic Global Variable-Resolution Modeling Framework Highlight Presentation
Gone with the Wind: The Trans-Pacific Journey of Atmospheric Particles Highlight Presentation
Human Activities Influence Precipitation at Global and Continental Scales Highlight Presentation
Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Sea Surface Chlorophyll Highlight Presentation
Key Relationship Emerges in Modeling Plant Response to CO2 Increase Highlight Presentation
Local Finite-Amplitude Wave Activity as an Objective Diagnostic of Midlatitude Extreme Weather Highlight Presentation
Mechanisms Contributing to Suppressed Precipitation in Mt. Hua of Central China. Part I: Mountain Valley Circulation Highlight Presentation
Mesoscale Convection Changing Spring Rain in the Great Plains States Highlight Presentation
Mixed-Phase Orographic Clouds: Pollution’s Influence to Precipitate Snow Highlight Presentation
Modelling of Long-Range Transport of Southeast Asia Biomass-Burning Aerosols Highlight
Powerful Brakes Applied by Cyclones’ Cold Wakes Highlight Presentation
Projected Changes in Mean and Interannual Variability of Surface Water over Continental China Highlight
Prolonged El Niño Conditions in 2014-2015 and the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Patricia in the Eastern Pacific Highlight Presentation
Regional Downscaling of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction: Past Lessons and Future Prospects Highlight Presentation
Researchers Put Model to the Test for Trans-Pacific Aerosols Highlight Presentation
Satellite Sounder Observations of Contrasting Tropospheric Moisture Transport Regimes: Saharan Air Layers, Hadley Cells, and Atmospheric Rivers Highlight Presentation
Scientists Project Large Increase in Extreme Precipitation over Western North America Due to Global Warming Highlight Presentation
Simulating Hydrologic Flux Sensitivity to Model Parameters in the Community Land Model Highlight Presentation
Sizing Up Cyclones Highlight Presentation
Soot and Dust: A Better Picture of the Impact on Snow Highlight Presentation
Sources of Errors in the Simulation of South Asian Summer Monsoon in the CMIP5 GCMs Highlight Presentation
Testing a Relationship: Arctic Warming and China's Summer Monsoon Highlight
The De-Correlation of Westerly Winds and Westerly-Wind Stress over the Southern Ocean during the Last Glacial Maximum Highlight Presentation
The Fertilizing Role of African Dust in the Amazon Rainforest Highlight
The Jet Stream Response to Global Warming is Further Deciphered Highlight Presentation
The Long and Rich Life of Tropical Clouds Highlight Presentation
The Tropical Rain Belts with an Annual Cycle and a Continent Model Intercomparison Project: TRACMIP Highlight Presentation
To the Extreme: How Booming Cities Influence Climate Highlight Presentation
Uncertainty in Future Projections of the North Pacific Subtropical High and its Implication for California Winter Precipitation Change Highlight
Understanding the El Nino-like Oceanic Response in the Tropical Pacific to Global Warming Highlight Presentation
Understanding the Indian Ocean Response to Double CO2 Forcing in a Coupled Model Highlight
Upscaling from Local Convection to the Global Jet Stream Highlight Presentation
Urbanization Impact on Summer Precipitation: Urban Heat Island versus Aerosol Effects Highlight Presentation
Water Balance in the Amazon Basin from a Land Surface Model Ensemble Highlight
West Coast Flooding on the Horizon Highlight
Wind and Cold Carry Dust to New Heights Highlight Presentation