Water Cycle and Climate Extremes Modeling

The Water Cycle and Climate Extremes Modeling (WACCEM) Scientific Focus Area represents sustained effort to advance predictive understanding of water cycle processes and their subseasonal-to-multidecadal variations and changes through foundational research using models, observations, and novel numerical experiments and analysis methods. With the ultimate goal of improving predictability of water availability and understanding societal vulnerability to extreme hydrologic events, WACCEM is organized around three overarching science questions:

  • How do large-scale circulation features modulate regional mean and extreme precipitation, and how will they change in the future?
  • What processes control mesoscale convection and associated warm season regional mean and extreme precipitation and how will they change in the future?
  • What do atmospheric circulation features and water cycle processes interact across scales, and how do they influence regional precipitation and its extremes?

Guided by these questions, WACCEM’s research is encapsulated in three research elements.

1. Large-Scale Circulation with the objectives to:

  • gain a better understanding of the mechanisms, such as the role of cloud radiative processes and energy transport pathways linking the ocean forcing to the monsoon, controlling the monsoon-ITCZ response to forcings; and  
  • develop a connection between the baroclinic annular model (BAM) and the evolution of weather events and extremes and understand the driving mechanisms for the enhancement of the BAM variability under warming.

2. Mesoscale Convective Systems with the objectives to:

  • characterize MCSs and their large-scale environments from the global tropics to the extratropics to understand their role in the climate system and potential changes in response to forcing; and
  • characterize the surface water balance and hydrologic floods associated with MCSs in the U.S. to advance an understanding of their role in surface hydrology and precipitation recycling.

3. Multiscale Interactions Between Convection and Large-Scale Circulation with the objectives to:

  • quantify the role of shallow, deep, and organized convection in atmospheric overturning circulation and precipitation in Asian and African monsoon systems; and
  • advance understanding of what controls the propagation of the MJO in the Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent and how the MJO influences extreme events such as atmospheric rivers and tropical cyclones.

This project was renewed for a three-year term, beginning in 2019. 

Project Term: 
2016 to 2021
Project Type: 
Science Focus Area (SFA)

Publications:

A case study of urbanization impact on summer precipitation in the Greater Beijing Metropolitan Area: Urban heat island versus aerosol effects
A Comparative Analysis of the Impacts of Climate Change and Irrigation on Land Surface and Subsurface Hydrology in the North China Plain
A meridional dipole in premonsoon Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone activity induced by ENSO
A projection of changes in landfalling atmospheric river frequency and extreme precipitation over western North America from the Large Ensemble CESM simulations
Application of an Online-Coupled Regional Climate Model, WRF-CAM5, over East Asia for Examination of Ice Nucleation Schemes: Part I. Comprehensive Model Evaluation and Trend Analysis for 2006 and 2011
Application of an Online-Coupled Regional Climate Model, WRF-CAM5, over East Asia for Examination of Ice Nucleation Schemes: Part II. Sensitivity to Heterogeneous Ice Nucleation Parameterizations and Dust Emissions
Aridity changes in the Tibetan Plateau in a warming climate
Biomass Smoke from Southern Africa Can Significantly Enhance the Brightness of Stratocumulus Over the Southeastern Atlantic Ocean
Changes in Temporal Variability of Precipitation over Land Due to Anthropogenic Forcings
Characteristics of Bay of Bengal Monsoon Depressions in the 21st Century
Derivation of an Observation-based Map of North African Dust Emission
Dynamic Potential Intensity: An improved representation of the ocean's impact on tropical cyclones
Effects of cloud condensation nuclei and ice nucleating particles on precipitation processes and supercooled liquid in mixed-phase orographic clouds
Effects of Ensemble Configuration on Estimates of Regional Climate Uncertainties
Environments of Long-Lived Mesoscale Convective Systems Over the Central United States in Convection Permitting Climate Simulations
Establishing a Numerical Modeling Framework for Hydrologic Engineering Analyses of Extreme Storm Events
Examining the Hydrological Variations in an Aquaplanet World Using Wave Activity Transformation
Exploring a Multi-resolution Approach Using AMIP Simulations
Exploring the Effects of a Nonhydrostatic Dynamical Core in High-resolution Aquaplanet Simulations
Exploring the Impacts of Physics and Resolution on Aqua-Planet Simulations from A Non-hydrostatic Global Variable-Resolution Modeling Framework
Future Changes in Seasonality of the North Pacific and North Atlantic Subtropical Highs
Geophysical Research Letters
Global Warming-Induced Upper-Ocean Freshening and the Intensification of Super Typhoons
High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6
Increasing Magnitude of Hurricane Rapid Intensification in the Central and Eastern Tropical Atlantic
Influence of dynamic vegetation on carbon-nitrogen cycle feedback in the Community Land Model (CLM4)
Interbasin Differences in the Relationship between SST and Tropical Cyclone Intensification
Investigating the zonal wind response to SST warming using transient ensemble AGCM experiments
Large Contribution of Coarse Mode to Aerosol Microphysical and Optical Properties: Evidence from Ground-based Observations of a Trans-Pacific Dust Outbreak at a High-Elevation North American Site
Linkages of Remote Sea Surface Temperatures and Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Mediated by the African Monsoon
Local Finite-Amplitude Wave Activity as an Objective Diagnostic of Midlatitude Extreme Weather
Mechanisms Contributing to Suppressed Precipitation in Mt. Hua of Central China, Part I - Mountain Valley Circulation
Modelling of Long-Range Transport of Southeast Asia Biomass-Burning Aerosols to Taiwan and their Radiative Forcings over East Asia
Moist Process Biases in Simulations of the Madden–Julian Oscillation Episodes Observed during the AMIE/DYNAMO Field Campaign
More Frequent Intense and Long-Lived Storms Dominate the Springtime Trend in Central US Rainfall
On the Use of Ocean Dynamic Temperature for Hurricane Intensity Forecasting
Persistent Cold Air Outbreaks over North America in a Warming Climate
Projected Changes in Mean and Interannual Variability of Surface Water over Continental China
Prolonged El Niño conditions in 2014–2015 and the rapid intensification of Hurricane Patricia in the eastern Pacific
Re-Examining Tropical Expansion
Regional Downscaling of S2S Prediction: Past Lessons and Future Prospects
Remote Drying in the North Atlantic as a Common Response to Precessional Changes and CO2 Increase Over Land
Resolution and Dynamical Core Dependence of Atmospheric River Frequency in Global Model Simulations
Response of the Hydrological Cycle in Asian Monsoon Systems to Global Warming Through the Lens of Water Vapor Wave Activity Analysis
Role of Troposphere-Convection-Land Coupling in the Southwestern Amazon Precipitation Bias of the Community Earth System Model Version 1 (CESM1)
Satellite Sounder Retrievals of Contrasting Moisture Transport Regimes: Saharan Air Layers, Hadley Cells, and Atmospheric Rivers
Sensitivity of Surface Temperature to Oceanic Forcing via q-Flux Green’s Function Experiments. Part I: Linear Response Function
Sensitivity of Surface Temperature to Oceanic Forcing via q-Flux Green’s Function Experiments. Part II: Feedback Decomposition and Polar Amplification
Sensitivity of U.S. summer precipitation to model resolution and convective parameterizations across gray zone resolutions
Shape of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks and the Indian Monsoon
Sources and pathways of the upscale effects on the Southern Hemisphere jet in MPAS-CAM4 variable-resolution simulations
Sources of Errors in the Simulation of South Asian Summer Monsoon in the CMIP5 GCMs
South Asian monsoon precipitation in CMIP5: a link between inter-model spread and the representations of tropical convection
Structure and Evolution of Mesoscale Convective Systems: Sensitivity to Cloud Microphysics in Convection-Permitting Simulations Over the United States
Substantial Contribution of Anthropogenic Air Pollution to Catastrophic Floods in Southwest China
Tangent linear superparameterization of convection in a 10-layer global atmosphere with calibrated climatology
The De‑Correlation of Westerly Winds and Westerly‑Wind Stress over the Southern Ocean during the Last Glacial Maximum
The Fertilizing Role of African Dust in the Amazon Rainforest: A First Multiyear Assessment Based on CALIPSO Lidar Observations
The Tropical Rain Belts with an Annual Cycle and a Continent Model Intercomparison Project: TRACMIP
Towards the Dynamical Convergence on the Jet Stream in Aquaplanet AGCMs
Trans-Pacific transport and evolution of aerosols: evaluation of quasi-global WRF-Chem simulation with multiple observations
Uncertainty in Future Projections of the North Pacific Subtropical High and its Implication for California Winter Precipitation Change
Understanding the El Niño‑like Oceanic Response in the Tropical Pacific to Global Warming
Understanding the Indian Ocean response to double CO2
Urbanization-induced urban heat island and aerosol effects on climate extremes in the Yangtze River Delta region of China
Water
Water Balance in the Amazon Basin from a Land Surface Model Ensemble

Research Highlights:

A Comparative Analysis of the Impacts of Climate Change and Irrigation on Land Surface and Subsurface Hydrology in the North China Plain Highlight
A Novel, Finite-Amplitude Wave Activity Transformation Reveals New Insights on Water Cycle Variations and Extremes Highlight Presentation
A Promising Venue to Improve the Realism of Precipitation Simulations at a Continental Scale Highlight Presentation
Ahoy Aquaplanet: Identifying Model Resolution Shortcomings Highlight
Air Pollution Amplified Extreme Weather, Floods in China Highlight Presentation
Aridity Changes in the Tibetan Plateau in a Warming Climate Highlight Presentation
Atmosphere Outpaces Ocean in Driving Extreme Winter Weather Along the U.S. West Coast Highlight Presentation
Atmospheric Bit Players Take Stage Highlight
Atmospheric Rivers, Finely Modeled Highlight Presentation
Bay of Bengal May-June Cyclones Grow Stronger in the North, Weaker in the South Highlight Presentation
Beyond Boundaries: Remote Heat Rouses Hurricanes Highlight Presentation
Biomass Smoke from Southern Africa Can Significantly Enhance the Brightness of Stratocumulus Over the Southeastern Atlantic Ocean Highlight Presentation
Brewing Up a Storm Highlight
Capturing the Relationship between Environmental Moisture and Precipitation: Important for Simulating the Madden-Julian Oscillation Highlight Presentation
Characteristics of Bay of Bengal Monsoon Depressions in the 21st Century Highlight Presentation
Cold Snaps Linger Despite Climate Change Highlight Presentation
Cooler Days, Warmer Nights Highlight Presentation
Decoding the Ocean’s Influence on Global Surface Air Temperature Patterns - Part 1 Highlight Presentation
Decoding the Ocean’s Influence on Global Surface Air Temperature Patterns - Part 2 Highlight Presentation
Decreased Upper Ocean Salinity Helps Intensify Super Typhoons Highlight Presentation
Delving into Model Resolution Impacts: The High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6 Highlight Presentation
Derivation of an Observation-Based Map of North African Dust Emission Highlight
Developing Simplified Tools to Understand the Relationship Between Convection and Large-Scale Circulation Highlight Presentation
Dry Patch of Land Connects Rainfall Across Continents Highlight Presentation
Dynamical Convergence on the Jet Stream in Aquaplanet AGCMs Highlight Presentation
Effects of Ensemble Configuration on Estimates of Regional Climate Uncertainties Highlight Presentation
Environments of Long-Lived Mesoscale Convective Systems Over the Central United States in Convection Permitting Climate Simulations Highlight Presentation
Establishing a Numerical Modeling Framework for Hydrologic Engineering Analyses of Extreme Storm Events Highlight Presentation
Evaluating a Chemistry-Coupled Regional Climate Model and Its Sensitivity to Ice Nucleation Representation over East Asia Highlight Presentation
Evaluating a Chemistry-Coupled Regional Climate Model and Its Sensitivity to Ice Nucleation Representation over East Asia Highlight Presentation
Exploring a Multi-resolution Approach Using AMIP Simulations Highlight Presentation
Exploring the Effects of Nonhydrostatic Formulation of Atmospheric Motions in High-Resolution All-Ocean Simulations Highlight Presentation
Exploring the Impacts of Physics and Resolution on Aqua-Planet Simulations from a Non-Hydrostatic Global Variable-Resolution Modeling Framework Highlight Presentation
Gone with the Wind: The Trans-Pacific Journey of Atmospheric Particles Highlight Presentation
Human Activities Influence Precipitation at Global and Continental Scales Highlight Presentation
Hurricane Intensity is More Than Surface Deep Highlight Presentation
Hurricanes Gained Strength More Quickly in the Central and Eastern Atlantic Ocean over the Last 30 Years Highlight Presentation
Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Sea Surface Chlorophyll Highlight Presentation
Indian Monsoon Steers Tropical Cyclones Across the Atlantic Highlight Presentation
Key Relationship Emerges in Modeling Plant Response to CO2 Increase Highlight Presentation
Local Finite-Amplitude Wave Activity as an Objective Diagnostic of Midlatitude Extreme Weather Highlight Presentation
Looking at Monsoon Rainfall Through a New Lens Highlight Presentation
Measuring the Tropics’ Bulging Waistline Highlight Presentation
Mechanisms Contributing to Suppressed Precipitation in Mt. Hua of Central China. Part I: Mountain Valley Circulation Highlight Presentation
Mesoscale Convection Changing Spring Rain in the Great Plains States Highlight Presentation
Mixed-Phase Orographic Clouds: Pollution’s Influence to Precipitate Snow Highlight Presentation
Modelling of Long-Range Transport of Southeast Asia Biomass-Burning Aerosols Highlight
Oceanic Divide Factors Into Tropical Cyclone Strength Highlight Presentation
Powerful Brakes Applied by Cyclones’ Cold Wakes Highlight Presentation
Projected Changes in Mean and Interannual Variability of Surface Water over Continental China Highlight
Prolonged El Niño Conditions in 2014-2015 and the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Patricia in the Eastern Pacific Highlight Presentation
Regional Downscaling of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction: Past Lessons and Future Prospects Highlight Presentation
Researchers Put Model to the Test for Trans-Pacific Aerosols Highlight Presentation
Restoring Rain to a Model Amazon Forest Highlight Presentation
Satellite Sounder Observations of Contrasting Tropospheric Moisture Transport Regimes: Saharan Air Layers, Hadley Cells, and Atmospheric Rivers Highlight Presentation
Scientists Project Large Increase in Extreme Precipitation over Western North America Due to Global Warming Highlight Presentation
Simulating Hydrologic Flux Sensitivity to Model Parameters in the Community Land Model Highlight Presentation
Sizing Up Cyclones Highlight Presentation
Soot and Dust: A Better Picture of the Impact on Snow Highlight Presentation
Sources of Errors in the Simulation of South Asian Summer Monsoon in the CMIP5 GCMs Highlight Presentation
Testing a Relationship: Arctic Warming and China's Summer Monsoon Highlight
The De-Correlation of Westerly Winds and Westerly-Wind Stress over the Southern Ocean during the Last Glacial Maximum Highlight Presentation
The Far-Reaching Effects of Tropical Moist Air Highlight Presentation
The Fertilizing Role of African Dust in the Amazon Rainforest Highlight
The Jet Stream Response to Global Warming is Further Deciphered Highlight Presentation
The Long and Rich Life of Tropical Clouds Highlight Presentation
The Tropical Rain Belts with an Annual Cycle and a Continent Model Intercomparison Project: TRACMIP Highlight Presentation
Tiny Processes in Clouds Drive Storm System Longevity over the Central United States Highlight Presentation
To the Extreme: How Booming Cities Influence Climate Highlight Presentation
Uncertainty in Future Projections of the North Pacific Subtropical High and its Implication for California Winter Precipitation Change Highlight
Understanding the El Nino-like Oceanic Response in the Tropical Pacific to Global Warming Highlight Presentation
Understanding the Indian Ocean Response to Double CO2 Forcing in a Coupled Model Highlight
Upscaling from Local Convection to the Global Jet Stream Highlight Presentation
Urbanization Impact on Summer Precipitation: Urban Heat Island versus Aerosol Effects Highlight Presentation
Warmer Climate Brings Stronger Spring Storms to the United States Highlight Presentation
Water Balance in the Amazon Basin from a Land Surface Model Ensemble Highlight
West Coast Flooding on the Horizon Highlight
Wind and Cold Carry Dust to New Heights Highlight Presentation