21st century United States Emissions Mitigation could Increase Water Stress more than the Climate Change it is Mitigating

Title21st century United States Emissions Mitigation could Increase Water Stress more than the Climate Change it is Mitigating
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2015
Authors
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Volume112
Number34
Pages10635-10640
Date Published08/2015
Abstract / Summary

There is evidence that warming leads to greater evapotranspiration and surface drying, thus contributing to increasing intensity and duration of drought and implying that mitigation would reduce water stresses. However, understanding the overall impact of climate change mitigation on water resources requires accounting for the second part of the equation, i.e., the impact of mitigation-induced changes in water demands from human activities. By using integrated, high-resolution models of human and natural system processes to understand potential synergies and/or constraints within the climate–energy–water nexus, we show that in the United States, over the course of the 21st century and under one set of consistent socioeconomics, the reductions in water stress from slower rates of climate change resulting from emission mitigation are overwhelmed by the increased water stress from the emissions mitigation itself. The finding that the human dimension outpaces the benefits from mitigating climate change is contradictory to the general perception that climate change mitigation improves water conditions. This research shows the potential for unintended and negative consequences of climate change mitigation.

URLhttp://www.pnas.org/content/112/34/10635.abstract
DOI10.1073/pnas.1421675112
Funding Program: 
Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Year of Publication: 2015
Volume: 112
Number: 34
Pages: 10635-10640
Date Published: 08/2015

There is evidence that warming leads to greater evapotranspiration and surface drying, thus contributing to increasing intensity and duration of drought and implying that mitigation would reduce water stresses. However, understanding the overall impact of climate change mitigation on water resources requires accounting for the second part of the equation, i.e., the impact of mitigation-induced changes in water demands from human activities. By using integrated, high-resolution models of human and natural system processes to understand potential synergies and/or constraints within the climate–energy–water nexus, we show that in the United States, over the course of the 21st century and under one set of consistent socioeconomics, the reductions in water stress from slower rates of climate change resulting from emission mitigation are overwhelmed by the increased water stress from the emissions mitigation itself. The finding that the human dimension outpaces the benefits from mitigating climate change is contradictory to the general perception that climate change mitigation improves water conditions. This research shows the potential for unintended and negative consequences of climate change mitigation.

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1421675112
Citation:
2015.  "21st century United States Emissions Mitigation could Increase Water Stress more than the Climate Change it is Mitigating."  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112(34): 10635-10640.  https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1421675112.