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Publication Date
17 April 2020

Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6



We examine CMIP6 simulations of Arctic sea-ice area and volume. We find that CMIP6 models produce a wide spread of mean Arctic sea-ice area, capturing the observational estimate within the multi-model ensemble spread. The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble mean provides a more realistic estimate of the sensitivity of September Arctic sea-ice area to a given amount of anthropogenic CO2emissions and to a given amount of global warming, compared with earlier CMIP experiments. Still, most CMIP6 models fail to simulate at the same time a plausible evolution of sea-ice area and of global mean surface temperature. In the vast majority of the available CMIP6 simulations, the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea-ice free (sea-ice area < 1 million km2) in September for the first time before the year 2050 in each of the four emission scenarios SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-294.5 and SSP5-8.5 examined here.

“Arctic Sea Ice In Cmip6”. 2020. Geophysical Research Letters. doi:10.1029/2019gl086749.
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