Biological and Environmental Research - Earth and Environmental System Sciences
Earth and Environmental System Modeling

Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6

TitleArctic Sea Ice in CMIP6
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2020
AuthorsNotz, Dirk, Dorr Jakob, Bailey David A., Blockley Ed, Bushuk Mitchell, Debernard Jens Boldingh, Dekker Evelien, DeRepentigny Patricia, Docquier David, Fučkar Neven S., Fyfe John C., Jahn Alexandra, Holland Marika, Hunke Elizabeth, Iovino Doroteaciro, Khosravi Narges, Massonnet Franҫois, Madec Gurvan, O'Farrell Siobhan, Petty Alek, Rana Arun, Roach Lettie, Rosenblum Erica, Rousset Clement, Semmler Tido, Stroeve Julienne, Tremblay Bruno, Toyoda Takahiro, Tsujino Hiroyuki, and Vancoppenolle Martin
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Abstract / Summary

We examine CMIP6 simulations of Arctic sea-ice area and volume. We find that CMIP6 models produce a wide spread of mean Arctic sea-ice area, capturing the observational estimate within the multi-model ensemble spread. The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble mean provides a more realistic estimate of the sensitivity of September Arctic sea-ice area to a given amount of anthropogenic CO2emissions and to a given amount of global warming, compared with earlier CMIP experiments. Still, most CMIP6 models fail to simulate at the same time a plausible evolution of sea-ice area and of global mean surface temperature. In the vast majority of the available CMIP6 simulations, the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea-ice free (sea-ice area < 1 million km2) in September for the first time before the year 2050 in each of the four emission scenarios SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-294.5 and SSP5-8.5 examined here.

URLhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2019gl086749
DOI10.1029/2019gl086749
Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
Year of Publication: 2020
Publication Date: 04/2020

We examine CMIP6 simulations of Arctic sea-ice area and volume. We find that CMIP6 models produce a wide spread of mean Arctic sea-ice area, capturing the observational estimate within the multi-model ensemble spread. The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble mean provides a more realistic estimate of the sensitivity of September Arctic sea-ice area to a given amount of anthropogenic CO2emissions and to a given amount of global warming, compared with earlier CMIP experiments. Still, most CMIP6 models fail to simulate at the same time a plausible evolution of sea-ice area and of global mean surface temperature. In the vast majority of the available CMIP6 simulations, the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea-ice free (sea-ice area < 1 million km2) in September for the first time before the year 2050 in each of the four emission scenarios SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-294.5 and SSP5-8.5 examined here.

DOI: 10.1029/2019gl086749
Citation:
Notz, D, J Dorr, D Bailey, E Blockley, M Bushuk, J Debernard, E Dekker, et al.  2020.  "Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6."  Geophysical Research Letters.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl086749.