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Publication Date
14 March 2022

Attributing Extreme Weather: The New Science of Extreme Event Attribution

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Since 1970, extreme weather hazards have occurred every day, on average, over the past 50 years, according to the World Meteorological Organization. Being able to link such hazards to climate change and do so quickly can be an incredibly powerful tool to communicate the urgency and consequences of global warming. The emerging science of extreme event attribution utilizes mathematical approaches to tease out whether and by how much human-caused climate change contributed to individual extreme events. Attribution science has matured to the point where the number and intensity of extreme weather hazards caused by climate change can now be estimated.

The number of extreme weather hazards has been increasing over the past 50 years. It is now possible, through extreme event attribution methods, to make quantitative statements about the influence of human-induced global warming on specific individual extreme weather events. Extreme event attribution is a formal use of causal inference techniques. Confidence in resulting attribution statements is enhanced when multiple methods, mathematical models, and data sources lead to similar conclusions. These conclusions can be powerful tools for adapting behaviors and infrastructure to climate change. Causal inference together with an understanding of the key physical processes has revealed that the human influence on the climate system, including extreme weather, is indisputable. 

Wehner, Michael. 2022. “Attributing Extreme Weather: The New Science Of Extreme Event Attribution ”. In Mathematics For Action: Supporting Science-Based Decision-Making, 37-38. Paris, France: UNESCO. https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000380883.locale=en.
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