Biological and Environmental Research - Earth and Environmental System Sciences
Earth and Environmental System Modeling

Attribution of Extreme Weather to Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Sensitivity to Spatial and Temporal Scales

TitleAttribution of Extreme Weather to Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Sensitivity to Spatial and Temporal Scales
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2014
AuthorsAngélil, Oliver, Stone Daithi A., Tadross Mark, Tummon Fiona, Wehner Michael, and Knutti Reto
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume41
Number6
Pages2150-2155
Abstract / Summary

Recent studies have examined the anthropogenic contribution to specific extreme weather events, such as the European (2003) and Russian (2010) heat waves. While these targeted studies examine the attributable risk of an event occurring over a specified temporal and spatial domain, it is unclear how effectively their attribution statements can serve as a proxy for similar events occurring at different temporal and spatial scales. Here we test the sensitivity of attribution results to the temporal and spatial scales of extreme precipitation and temperature events by applying a probabilistic event attribution framework to the output of two global climate models, each run with and without anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Attributable risk tends to be more sensitive to the temporal than spatial scale of the event, increasing as event duration increases. Globally, correlations between attribution statements at different spatial scales are very strong for temperature extremes and moderate for heavy precipitation extremes.

URLhttps://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059234
DOI10.1002/2014GL059234
Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
Year of Publication: 2014
Volume: 41
Number: 6
Pages: 2150-2155
Publication Date: 03/2014

Recent studies have examined the anthropogenic contribution to specific extreme weather events, such as the European (2003) and Russian (2010) heat waves. While these targeted studies examine the attributable risk of an event occurring over a specified temporal and spatial domain, it is unclear how effectively their attribution statements can serve as a proxy for similar events occurring at different temporal and spatial scales. Here we test the sensitivity of attribution results to the temporal and spatial scales of extreme precipitation and temperature events by applying a probabilistic event attribution framework to the output of two global climate models, each run with and without anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Attributable risk tends to be more sensitive to the temporal than spatial scale of the event, increasing as event duration increases. Globally, correlations between attribution statements at different spatial scales are very strong for temperature extremes and moderate for heavy precipitation extremes.

DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059234
Citation:
Angélil, O, DA Stone, M Tadross, F Tummon, M Wehner, and R Knutti.  2014.  "Attribution of Extreme Weather to Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Sensitivity to Spatial and Temporal Scales."  Geophysical Research Letters 41(6): 2150-2155.  https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059234.