The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate ChangE (BRACE): A Synthesis

TitleThe Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate ChangE (BRACE): A Synthesis
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2017
AuthorsO’Neill, Brian C., Done James M., Lawrence Peter, Lehner Flavio, Lamarque Jean-Francois, Lin Lei, Monaghan Andrew J., Oleson Keith, Ren Xiaolin, Sanderson Benjamin M., Tebaldi Claudia, Weitzel Matthias, Xu Yangyang, Anderson Brooke, Fix Miranda J., and Levis Samuel
JournalClimatic Change
Volume146
Number3-4
Pages287 - 301
Date Published07/2017
Abstract / Summary

Understanding how impacts may differ across alternative levels of future climate change is necessary to inform mitigation and adaptation measures. The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE) project assesses the differences in impacts between two specific climate futures: a higher emissions future with global average temperature increasing about 3.7 °C above pre-industrial levels toward the end of the century and a moderate emissions future with global average warming of about 2.5 °C. BRACE studies in this special issue quantify avoided impacts on physical, managed, and societal systems in terms of extreme events, health, agriculture, and tropical cyclones. Here we describe the conceptual framework and design of BRACE and synthesize its results. Methodologically, the project combines climate modeling, statistical analysis, and impact assessment and draws heavily on large ensembles using the Community Earth System Model. It addresses uncertainty in future societal change by employing two pathways for future socioeconomic development. Results show that the benefits of reduced climate change within this framework vary substantially across types of impacts. In many cases, especially related to extreme heat events, there are substantial benefits to mitigation. The benefits for some heat extremes are statistically significant in some regions as early as the 2020s and are widespread by mid-century. Benefits are more modest for agriculture and exposure to some health risks. Benefits are negative for agriculture when CO2 fertilization is incorporated. For several societal impacts, the effect on outcomes of alternative future societal development pathways is substantially larger than the effect of the two climate scenarios. 

URLhttps://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2009-x
DOI10.1007/s10584-017-2009-x
Journal: Climatic Change
Year of Publication: 2017
Volume: 146
Number: 3-4
Pages: 287 - 301
Date Published: 07/2017

Understanding how impacts may differ across alternative levels of future climate change is necessary to inform mitigation and adaptation measures. The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE) project assesses the differences in impacts between two specific climate futures: a higher emissions future with global average temperature increasing about 3.7 °C above pre-industrial levels toward the end of the century and a moderate emissions future with global average warming of about 2.5 °C. BRACE studies in this special issue quantify avoided impacts on physical, managed, and societal systems in terms of extreme events, health, agriculture, and tropical cyclones. Here we describe the conceptual framework and design of BRACE and synthesize its results. Methodologically, the project combines climate modeling, statistical analysis, and impact assessment and draws heavily on large ensembles using the Community Earth System Model. It addresses uncertainty in future societal change by employing two pathways for future socioeconomic development. Results show that the benefits of reduced climate change within this framework vary substantially across types of impacts. In many cases, especially related to extreme heat events, there are substantial benefits to mitigation. The benefits for some heat extremes are statistically significant in some regions as early as the 2020s and are widespread by mid-century. Benefits are more modest for agriculture and exposure to some health risks. Benefits are negative for agriculture when CO2 fertilization is incorporated. For several societal impacts, the effect on outcomes of alternative future societal development pathways is substantially larger than the effect of the two climate scenarios. 

DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2009-x
Citation:
O’Neill, BC, JM Done, P Lawrence, F Lehner, J Lamarque, L Lin, AJ Monaghan, et al.  2017.  "The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate ChangE (BRACE): A Synthesis."  Climatic Change 146(3-4): 287 - 301.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2009-x.