Calibration and Analysis of the Uncertainty in Downscaling Global Land Use and Land Cover Projections From GCAM Using Demeter (v1.0.0)

TitleCalibration and Analysis of the Uncertainty in Downscaling Global Land Use and Land Cover Projections From GCAM Using Demeter (v1.0.0)
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2019
AuthorsChen, Min, Vernon Chris R., Huang Maoyi, Calvin Katherine V., and Kraucunas Ian P.
JournalGeoscientific Model Development
Volume12
Pages1753-1764
Date Published05/2019
Abstract / Summary

Demeter is a community spatial downscaling model that disaggregates land use and land cover changes projected by integrated human–Earth system models. Demeter has not been intensively calibrated, and we still lack good knowledge about its sensitivity to key parameters and parameter uncertainties. We used long-term global satellite-based land cover records to calibrate key Demeter parameters. The results identified the optimal parameter values and showed that the parameterization substantially improved the model's performance. The parameters of intensification ratio and selection threshold were the most sensitive and needed to be carefully tuned, especially for regional applications. Further, small parameter uncertainties after calibration can be inflated when propagated into future scenarios, suggesting that users should consider the parameterization equifinality to better account for the uncertainties in Demeter-downscaled products. Our study provides a key reference for Demeter users and ultimately contributes to reducing the uncertainties in Earth system model simulations.

URLhttp://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1753-2019
DOI10.5194/gmd-12-1753-2019
Funding Program: 
Journal: Geoscientific Model Development
Year of Publication: 2019
Volume: 12
Pages: 1753-1764
Date Published: 05/2019

Demeter is a community spatial downscaling model that disaggregates land use and land cover changes projected by integrated human–Earth system models. Demeter has not been intensively calibrated, and we still lack good knowledge about its sensitivity to key parameters and parameter uncertainties. We used long-term global satellite-based land cover records to calibrate key Demeter parameters. The results identified the optimal parameter values and showed that the parameterization substantially improved the model's performance. The parameters of intensification ratio and selection threshold were the most sensitive and needed to be carefully tuned, especially for regional applications. Further, small parameter uncertainties after calibration can be inflated when propagated into future scenarios, suggesting that users should consider the parameterization equifinality to better account for the uncertainties in Demeter-downscaled products. Our study provides a key reference for Demeter users and ultimately contributes to reducing the uncertainties in Earth system model simulations.

DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-1753-2019
Citation:
Chen, M, CR Vernon, M Huang, KV Calvin, and IP Kraucunas.  2019.  "Calibration and Analysis of the Uncertainty in Downscaling Global Land Use and Land Cover Projections From GCAM Using Demeter (v1.0.0)."  Geoscientific Model Development 12: 1753-1764.  https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1753-2019.