Biological and Environmental Research - Earth and Environmental System Sciences
Earth and Environmental System Modeling

Can we Constrain Uncertainty in Hydrologic Cycle Projections?

TitleCan we Constrain Uncertainty in Hydrologic Cycle Projections?
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2019
AuthorsPrein, Andreas F., and Pendergrass Angeline G.
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Abstract / Summary

Climate change intensifies the earth’s hydrologic cycle, which has far-reaching consequences including water availability, agricultural production, and electric power generation. The rate of intensification projected by state-of-the-art global climate models with increasing greenhouse gas emissions, however, is highly uncertain. Thackeray et al. (2018) show that these uncertainties are related to how GCMs distribute future precipitation by either strongly increasing extreme precipitation at the cost of non-extreme events or by increasing non-extreme precipitation at the cost of extreme precipitation events. These results could help to constrain uncertainties in future hydrologic cycle intensification, thereby improving our understanding of future water resource availability and extreme hydrologic events.

URLhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018gl081529
DOI10.1029/2018gl081529
Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
Year of Publication: 2019
Publication Date: 04/2019

Climate change intensifies the earth’s hydrologic cycle, which has far-reaching consequences including water availability, agricultural production, and electric power generation. The rate of intensification projected by state-of-the-art global climate models with increasing greenhouse gas emissions, however, is highly uncertain. Thackeray et al. (2018) show that these uncertainties are related to how GCMs distribute future precipitation by either strongly increasing extreme precipitation at the cost of non-extreme events or by increasing non-extreme precipitation at the cost of extreme precipitation events. These results could help to constrain uncertainties in future hydrologic cycle intensification, thereby improving our understanding of future water resource availability and extreme hydrologic events.

DOI: 10.1029/2018gl081529
Citation:
Prein, AF, and A Pendergrass.  2019.  "Can we Constrain Uncertainty in Hydrologic Cycle Projections?"  Geophysical Research Letters.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl081529.