Biological and Environmental Research - Earth and Environmental System Sciences
Earth and Environmental System Modeling

Climate Constraint Reflects Forced Signal

TitleClimate Constraint Reflects Forced Signal
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2018
JournalNature
Volume563
Number7729
PagesE6-E9
Abstract / Summary

A recent paper by Cox et al. introduces Ψ, “a theoretically informed metric of global temperature variability”, which scales with equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) across 16 general circulation models (GCMs). Cox et al. report that Ψ provides a strong constraint on ECS, ruling out both high and low values. Our analysis shows that this constraint is sensitive to the GCMs considered, primarily reflects the forced climate response rather than climate variability and does not narrow the uncertainty in ECS. It is therefore premature to rule out the possibility of large ECS values.

URLhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0640-y
DOI10.1038/s41586-018-0640-y
Journal: Nature
Year of Publication: 2018
Volume: 563
Number: 7729
Pages: E6-E9
Publication Date: 11/2018

A recent paper by Cox et al. introduces Ψ, “a theoretically informed metric of global temperature variability”, which scales with equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) across 16 general circulation models (GCMs). Cox et al. report that Ψ provides a strong constraint on ECS, ruling out both high and low values. Our analysis shows that this constraint is sensitive to the GCMs considered, primarily reflects the forced climate response rather than climate variability and does not narrow the uncertainty in ECS. It is therefore premature to rule out the possibility of large ECS values.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0640-y
Citation:
Po-Chedley, S, C Proistosescu, KC Armour, and BD Santer.  2018.  "Climate Constraint Reflects Forced Signal."  Nature 563(7729): E6-E9.  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0640-y.