Biological and Environmental Research - Earth and Environmental System Sciences
Earth and Environmental System Modeling

Climate Impacts of Geoengineering in a Delayed Mitigation Scenario

TitleClimate Impacts of Geoengineering in a Delayed Mitigation Scenario
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2016
Authors
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume43
Number15
Pages8222-8229
Abstract / Summary

Decarbonization in the immediate future is required to limit global mean temperature (GMT) increase to 2°C relative to preindustrial conditions, if geoengineering is not considered. Here we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate climate outcomes if no mitigation is undertaken until GMT has reached 2°C. We find that late decarbonization in CESM without applying stratospheric sulfur injection (SSI) leads to a peak temperature increase of 3°C and GMT remains above 2° for 160 years. An additional gradual increase and then decrease of SSI over this period reaching about 1.5 times the aerosol burden resulting from the Mount Pinatubo eruption in 1992 would limit the increase in GMT to 2.0° for the specific pathway and model. SSI produces mean and extreme temperatures in CESM comparable to an early decarbonization pathway, but aridity is not mitigated to the same extent.

URLhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070122
DOI10.1002/2016GL070122
Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
Year of Publication: 2016
Volume: 43
Number: 15
Pages: 8222-8229
Publication Date: 08/2016

Decarbonization in the immediate future is required to limit global mean temperature (GMT) increase to 2°C relative to preindustrial conditions, if geoengineering is not considered. Here we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate climate outcomes if no mitigation is undertaken until GMT has reached 2°C. We find that late decarbonization in CESM without applying stratospheric sulfur injection (SSI) leads to a peak temperature increase of 3°C and GMT remains above 2° for 160 years. An additional gradual increase and then decrease of SSI over this period reaching about 1.5 times the aerosol burden resulting from the Mount Pinatubo eruption in 1992 would limit the increase in GMT to 2.0° for the specific pathway and model. SSI produces mean and extreme temperatures in CESM comparable to an early decarbonization pathway, but aridity is not mitigated to the same extent.

DOI: 10.1002/2016GL070122
Citation:
2016.  "Climate Impacts of Geoengineering in a Delayed Mitigation Scenario."  Geophysical Research Letters 43(15): 8222-8229.  https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070122.