Biological and Environmental Research - Earth and Environmental System Sciences
Earth and Environmental System Modeling

The domestic and international implications of future climate for U.S. agriculture in GCAM

TitleThe domestic and international implications of future climate for U.S. agriculture in GCAM
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2020
JournalPLOS ONE
Volume15
Number8
Pagese0237918
Abstract / Summary

Agricultural crop yields are susceptible to changes in future temperature, precipitation, and other Earth system factors. Future changes to these physical Earth system attributes and their effects on agricultural crop yields are highly uncertain. United States agricultural producers will be affected by such changes whether they occur domestically or internationally through international commodity markets. Here we present a replication study of previous investigations (with different models) showing that potential direct domestic climate effects on crop yields in the U.S. have financial consequences for U.S. producers on the same order of magnitude but opposite in sign to indirect financial impacts on U.S. producers from climate effects on crop yields elsewhere in the world. We conclude that the analysis of country-specific financial climate impacts cannot ignore indirect effects arising through international markets. We find our results to be robust across a wide range of potential future crop yield impacts analyzed in the multi-sector dynamic global model GCAM.

URLhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237918
DOI10.1371/journal.pone.0237918
Funding Program: 
Journal: PLOS ONE
Year of Publication: 2020
Volume: 15
Number: 8
Pages: e0237918
Publication Date: 08/2020

Agricultural crop yields are susceptible to changes in future temperature, precipitation, and other Earth system factors. Future changes to these physical Earth system attributes and their effects on agricultural crop yields are highly uncertain. United States agricultural producers will be affected by such changes whether they occur domestically or internationally through international commodity markets. Here we present a replication study of previous investigations (with different models) showing that potential direct domestic climate effects on crop yields in the U.S. have financial consequences for U.S. producers on the same order of magnitude but opposite in sign to indirect financial impacts on U.S. producers from climate effects on crop yields elsewhere in the world. We conclude that the analysis of country-specific financial climate impacts cannot ignore indirect effects arising through international markets. We find our results to be robust across a wide range of potential future crop yield impacts analyzed in the multi-sector dynamic global model GCAM.

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0237918
Citation:
Snyder, A, K Calvin, L Clarke, J Edmonds, P Kyle, K Narayan, A Di Vittorio, S Waldhoff, M Wise, and P Patel.  2020.  "The domestic and international implications of future climate for U.S. agriculture in GCAM."  PLOS ONE 15(8): e0237918.  https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237918.