Economic and Physical Modeling of Land Use in GCAM 3.0 and an Application to Agricultural Productivity, Land and Terrestrial Carbon

TitleEconomic and Physical Modeling of Land Use in GCAM 3.0 and an Application to Agricultural Productivity, Land and Terrestrial Carbon
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2014
AuthorsWise, Marshall, Calivin Kate, Kyle Page, Luckow Patrick, and Edmonds Jae
JournalClimate Change Economics
Volume5
Number2
Abstract / Summary

The release of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) version 3.0 represents a major revision in the treatment of agriculture and land-use activities in a model of long-term, global human and physical Earth systems. GCAM 3.0 incorporates greater spatial and temporal resolution compared to GCAM 2.0. In this paper, we document the methods embodied in the new release, describe the motivation for the changes, compare GCAM 3.0 methods to those of other long-term, global agriculture-economy models and apply GCAM 3.0 to explore the impact of changes in agricultural crop yields on global land use and terrestrial carbon. In the absence of continued crop yield improvements throughout the century, not only are cumulative carbon emissions a major source of CO2 emissions to the atmosphere, but bioenergy production remains trivial — land is needed for food. In contrast, the high crop yield improvement scenario cuts terrestrial carbon emissions dramatically and facilitates both food and energy production.

 

URLhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1142/S2010007814500031
DOI10.1142/S2010007814500031
Funding Program: 
Journal: Climate Change Economics
Year of Publication: 2014
Volume: 5
Number: 2
Publication Date: 05/2014

The release of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) version 3.0 represents a major revision in the treatment of agriculture and land-use activities in a model of long-term, global human and physical Earth systems. GCAM 3.0 incorporates greater spatial and temporal resolution compared to GCAM 2.0. In this paper, we document the methods embodied in the new release, describe the motivation for the changes, compare GCAM 3.0 methods to those of other long-term, global agriculture-economy models and apply GCAM 3.0 to explore the impact of changes in agricultural crop yields on global land use and terrestrial carbon. In the absence of continued crop yield improvements throughout the century, not only are cumulative carbon emissions a major source of CO2 emissions to the atmosphere, but bioenergy production remains trivial — land is needed for food. In contrast, the high crop yield improvement scenario cuts terrestrial carbon emissions dramatically and facilitates both food and energy production.

 

DOI: 10.1142/S2010007814500031
Citation:
Wise, M, K Calivin, P Kyle, P Luckow, and J Edmonds.  2014.  "Economic and Physical Modeling of Land Use in GCAM 3.0 and an Application to Agricultural Productivity, Land and Terrestrial Carbon."  Climate Change Economics 5(2).  https://doi.org/10.1142/S2010007814500031.