Biological and Environmental Research - Earth and Environmental System Sciences
Earth and Environmental System Modeling

Estimating the Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity as the Climate Changes

TitleEstimating the Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity as the Climate Changes
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2019
AuthorsWehner, Michael F., Zarzycki Colin, and Patricola C. M.
JournalHurricane Risk
Volume1
Pages235-260
Abstract / Summary

Quantifying the human influence on individual extreme weather events is a new and rapidly developing science. Understanding the influence of climate change on tropical cyclones poses special challenges due to their intensities and scales. We present a method designed to overcome these challenges using high-resolution hindcasts of individual tropical cyclones under their actual large-scale meteorological conditions, counterfactual conditions without human influences on the climate system, and scenarios of increased climate change. Two practical case studies are presented along with a discussion of the conditions and limitations of attribution statements that can be made with this hindcast attribution method.

URLhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-02402-4_12
DOI10.1007/978-3-030-02402-4_12
Journal: Hurricane Risk
Year of Publication: 2019
Volume: 1
Pages: 235-260
Publication Date: 02/2019

Quantifying the human influence on individual extreme weather events is a new and rapidly developing science. Understanding the influence of climate change on tropical cyclones poses special challenges due to their intensities and scales. We present a method designed to overcome these challenges using high-resolution hindcasts of individual tropical cyclones under their actual large-scale meteorological conditions, counterfactual conditions without human influences on the climate system, and scenarios of increased climate change. Two practical case studies are presented along with a discussion of the conditions and limitations of attribution statements that can be made with this hindcast attribution method.

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-02402-4_12
Citation:
Wehner, MF, C Zarzycki, and CM Patricola.  2019.  "Estimating the Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity as the Climate Changes."  Hurricane Risk 1: 235-260.  https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-02402-4_12.