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Publication Date
16 February 2019

Estimating the Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity as the Climate Changes



Quantifying the human influence on individual extreme weather events is a new and rapidly developing science. Understanding the influence of climate change on tropical cyclones poses special challenges due to their intensities and scales. We present a method designed to overcome these challenges using high-resolution hindcasts of individual tropical cyclones under their actual large-scale meteorological conditions, counterfactual conditions without human influences on the climate system, and scenarios of increased climate change. Two practical case studies are presented along with a discussion of the conditions and limitations of attribution statements that can be made with this hindcast attribution method.

“Estimating The Human Influence On Tropical Cyclone Intensity As The Climate Changes”. 2019. Hurricane Risk 1: 235-260. doi:10.1007/978-3-030-02402-4_12.
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