Biological and Environmental Research - Earth and Environmental System Sciences
Earth and Environmental System Modeling

Evaluating long-term model-based scenarios of the energy system

TitleEvaluating long-term model-based scenarios of the energy system
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2020
JournalEnergy Strategy Reviews
Volume32
Pages100551
Abstract / Summary

Energy-economic models are used to provide science-based decision support in many contexts; evaluating scenarios generated by these models is critical for establishing the credibility of the analyses these tools support. We propose a framework for evaluating energy system scenarios consisting of three parts – a qualitative storyline, quantitative metrics, and evaluation criteria. We apply this framework to the reference scenario for GCAM-USA, a version of the Global Change Analysis Model with state-level detail in the United States, focusing on the evolution of the electric power sector. We develop new visual analytic tools to facilitate evaluation of model outcomes in 51 sub-national regions, and demonstrate how scenario performance can be tracked and compared
across four quantifications of the GCAM-USA reference scenario.

URLhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2020.100551
DOI10.1016/j.esr.2020.100551
Funding Program: 
Journal: Energy Strategy Reviews
Year of Publication: 2020
Volume: 32
Pages: 100551
Publication Date: 11/2020

Energy-economic models are used to provide science-based decision support in many contexts; evaluating scenarios generated by these models is critical for establishing the credibility of the analyses these tools support. We propose a framework for evaluating energy system scenarios consisting of three parts – a qualitative storyline, quantitative metrics, and evaluation criteria. We apply this framework to the reference scenario for GCAM-USA, a version of the Global Change Analysis Model with state-level detail in the United States, focusing on the evolution of the electric power sector. We develop new visual analytic tools to facilitate evaluation of model outcomes in 51 sub-national regions, and demonstrate how scenario performance can be tracked and compared
across four quantifications of the GCAM-USA reference scenario.

DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2020.100551
Citation:
Binsted, M, G Iyer, R Cui, Z Khan, K Dorheim, and L Clarke.  2020.  "Evaluating long-term model-based scenarios of the energy system."  Energy Strategy Reviews 32: 100551.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2020.100551.