Biological and Environmental Research - Earth and Environmental System Sciences
Earth and Environmental System Modeling

Flash Droughts Present a New Challenge for Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction

TitleFlash Droughts Present a New Challenge for Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2020
JournalNature Climate Change
Volume10
Number3
Pages191-199
Abstract / Summary

Flash droughts are a recently recognized type of extreme event distinguished by sudden onset and rapid intensification of drought conditions with severe impacts. They unfold on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales (weeks to months), presenting a new challenge for the surge of interest in improving subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Here we discuss existing prediction capability for flash droughts and what is needed to establish their predictability. We place them in the context of synoptic to centennial phenomena, consider how they could be incorporated into early warning systems and risk management, and propose two definitions. The growing awareness that flash droughts involve particular processes and severe impacts, and probably a climate change dimension, makes them a compelling frontier for research, monitoring and prediction.

URLhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0709-0
DOI10.1038/s41558-020-0709-0
Journal: Nature Climate Change
Year of Publication: 2020
Volume: 10
Number: 3
Pages: 191-199
Publication Date: 03/2020

Flash droughts are a recently recognized type of extreme event distinguished by sudden onset and rapid intensification of drought conditions with severe impacts. They unfold on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales (weeks to months), presenting a new challenge for the surge of interest in improving subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Here we discuss existing prediction capability for flash droughts and what is needed to establish their predictability. We place them in the context of synoptic to centennial phenomena, consider how they could be incorporated into early warning systems and risk management, and propose two definitions. The growing awareness that flash droughts involve particular processes and severe impacts, and probably a climate change dimension, makes them a compelling frontier for research, monitoring and prediction.

DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0709-0
Citation:
Pendergrass, A, G Meehl, R Pulwarty, M Hobbins, A Hoell, A AghaKouchak, C Bonfils, et al.  2020.  "Flash Droughts Present a New Challenge for Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction."  Nature Climate Change 10(3): 191-199.  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0709-0.