Biological and Environmental Research - Earth and Environmental System Sciences
Earth and Environmental System Modeling

Forced Patterns of Sea Level Rise in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble from 1920 to 2100

TitleForced Patterns of Sea Level Rise in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble from 1920 to 2100
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2020
AuthorsFasullo, John T., Gent Peter R., and Nerem R. S.
JournalJournal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
Abstract / Summary

To provide context for observed sea level rise, the forced response (FR) in dynamic sea level (DSL) during the 20th and 21st centuries is examined in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (LE). After accounting for simulation drift, which in the LE is sizable, the DSL FR is found to be complex, both in space and time. Its evolving character is suggested to arise from both the diversity and transient evolution of climate forcing agents and the slow adjustment timescales of the intermediate and deep oceans. Nonetheless, various intervals of spatially coherent change simulated for the recent past and near future are identified and their characteristics and associated driving mechanisms are identified and discussed. The mid‐ to late‐20th century DSL FR is characterized by an hemispherically asymmetric pattern of change, with depressed rates of rise in the northern oceans. There is also a dipole of change in the Southern Ocean caused by changes in near‐surface zonal winds. Through the late 20th and early 21st centuries, a different pattern of rise emerges with elevated rates in the tropics and depressed rates at high latitudes. Zonal and inter‐basin variations characterize both intervals and involve the pattern and depth of anomalous ocean heat content storage and spatial contrasts in the expansion coefficient tied mainly to base state temperature, with greater rates of rise in warm regions per unit warming. The relative roles of surface flux and ocean convergence anomalies are examined.

URLhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2019jc016030
DOI10.1029/2019jc016030
Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
Year of Publication: 2020
Publication Date: 05/2020

To provide context for observed sea level rise, the forced response (FR) in dynamic sea level (DSL) during the 20th and 21st centuries is examined in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (LE). After accounting for simulation drift, which in the LE is sizable, the DSL FR is found to be complex, both in space and time. Its evolving character is suggested to arise from both the diversity and transient evolution of climate forcing agents and the slow adjustment timescales of the intermediate and deep oceans. Nonetheless, various intervals of spatially coherent change simulated for the recent past and near future are identified and their characteristics and associated driving mechanisms are identified and discussed. The mid‐ to late‐20th century DSL FR is characterized by an hemispherically asymmetric pattern of change, with depressed rates of rise in the northern oceans. There is also a dipole of change in the Southern Ocean caused by changes in near‐surface zonal winds. Through the late 20th and early 21st centuries, a different pattern of rise emerges with elevated rates in the tropics and depressed rates at high latitudes. Zonal and inter‐basin variations characterize both intervals and involve the pattern and depth of anomalous ocean heat content storage and spatial contrasts in the expansion coefficient tied mainly to base state temperature, with greater rates of rise in warm regions per unit warming. The relative roles of surface flux and ocean convergence anomalies are examined.

DOI: 10.1029/2019jc016030
Citation:
Fasullo, J, P Gent, and R Nerem.  2020.  "Forced Patterns of Sea Level Rise in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble from 1920 to 2100."  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jc016030.