Future Global Mortality from Changes in Air Pollution Attributable to Climate Change

TitleFuture Global Mortality from Changes in Air Pollution Attributable to Climate Change
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2017
AuthorsSilva, Raquel A., J West Jason, Lamarque Jean-Francois, Shindell Drew T., Collins William, Faluvegi Greg, Folberth Gerd A., Horowitz Larry W., Nagashima Tatsuya, Naik Vaishali, Rumbold Steven T., Sudo Kengo, Takemura Toshihiko, Bergmann Daniel, Cameron-Smith Philip, Doherty Ruth M., Josse Beatrice, MacKenzie Ian A., Stevenson David S., Zeng Guang
JournalNature Climate Change
Date Published07/2017
Abstract / Summary

Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) are associated with premature human mortality; their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term, and on climate change. Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change used single atmospheric models. However, in related studies, mortality results differ among models. Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry–climate models to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5, is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (−30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relative to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (−195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM 2.5, we estimate 55,600 (−34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (−76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM 2.5-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.

URLhttp://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3354.html
DOI10.1038/nclimate3354
Journal: Nature Climate Change
Year of Publication: 2017
Date Published: 07/2017

Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) are associated with premature human mortality; their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term, and on climate change. Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change used single atmospheric models. However, in related studies, mortality results differ among models. Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry–climate models to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5, is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (−30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relative to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (−195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM 2.5, we estimate 55,600 (−34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (−76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM 2.5-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.

DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3354
Citation:
Silva, RA, JJ West, J Lamarque, DT Shindell, W Collins, G Faluvegi, GA Folberth, LW Horowitz, T Nagashima, V Naik, ST Rumbold, K Sudo, T Takemura, D Bergmann, P Cameron-Smith, RM Doherty, B Josse, IA MacKenzie, DS Stevenson, G Zeng, , and .  2017.  "Future Global Mortality from Changes in Air Pollution Attributable to Climate Change."  Nature Climate Change.  https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3354.