Skip to main content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Publication Date
21 April 2021

Global vulnerability of crop yields to climate change



Using a newly-available panel dataset of gridded annual crop yields in conjunction with a dynamic econometric model that distinguishes between farmers' short-run and long-run responses to weather shocks and accounts for adaptation, we investigate the risk to global crop yields from climate warming. Over broad spatial domains we observe only slight moderation of short-run impacts by farmers' long-run adjustments. In the absence of additional margins of adaptation beyond those pursued historically, projections constructed using an ensemble of 21 climate model simulations suggest that the climate change could reduce global crop yields by 3–12% by mid-century and 11–25% by century's end, under a vigorous warming scenario.
“Global Vulnerability Of Crop Yields To Climate Change”. 2021. Journal Of Environmental Economics And Management 109.
Funding Program Area(s)