Biological and Environmental Research - Earth and Environmental System Sciences
Earth and Environmental System Modeling

Global vulnerability of crop yields to climate change

TitleGlobal vulnerability of crop yields to climate change
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2021
JournalJournal of Environmental Economics and Management
Volume109
Number102462
Abstract / Summary

Using a newly-available panel dataset of gridded annual crop yields in conjunction with a dynamic econometric model that distinguishes between farmers' short-run and long-run responses to weather shocks and accounts for adaptation, we investigate the risk to global crop yields from climate warming. Over broad spatial domains we observe only slight moderation of short-run impacts by farmers' long-run adjustments. In the absence of additional margins of adaptation beyond those pursued historically, projections constructed using an ensemble of 21 climate model simulations suggest that the climate change could reduce global crop yields by 3–12% by mid-century and 11–25% by century's end, under a vigorous warming scenario.

URLhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102462
Funding Program: 
Journal: Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
Year of Publication: 2021
Volume: 109
Number: 102462
Publication Date: 04/2021

Using a newly-available panel dataset of gridded annual crop yields in conjunction with a dynamic econometric model that distinguishes between farmers' short-run and long-run responses to weather shocks and accounts for adaptation, we investigate the risk to global crop yields from climate warming. Over broad spatial domains we observe only slight moderation of short-run impacts by farmers' long-run adjustments. In the absence of additional margins of adaptation beyond those pursued historically, projections constructed using an ensemble of 21 climate model simulations suggest that the climate change could reduce global crop yields by 3–12% by mid-century and 11–25% by century's end, under a vigorous warming scenario.

Citation:
Wing, IS, E De Cian, and MN Mistry.  2021.  "Global vulnerability of crop yields to climate change."  Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 109(102462).