Biological and Environmental Research - Earth and Environmental System Sciences
Earth and Environmental System Modeling

Humans Drive Future Water Scarcity Changes Across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

TitleHumans Drive Future Water Scarcity Changes Across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2020
JournalEnvironmental Research Letters
Volume15
Number1
Pages014007
Abstract / Summary

Future changes in climate and socioeconomic systems will drive both the availability and use of water resources, leading to evolutions in scarcity. The contributions of both systems can be quantified individually to understand the impacts around the world, but also combined to explore how the coevolution of energy-water-land systems affects not only the driver behind water scarcity changes, but how human and climate systems interact in tandem to alter water scarcity. Here we investigate the relative contributions of climate and socioeconomic systems on water scarcity under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-Representative Concentration Pathways framework. While human systems dominate changes in water scarcity independent of socioeconomic or climate future, the sign of these changes depend particularly on the socioeconomic scenario. Under specific socioeconomic futures, human-driven water scarcity reductions occur in up to 44% of the global land area by the end of the century.

URLhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b
Funding Program: 
Journal: Environmental Research Letters
Year of Publication: 2020
Volume: 15
Number: 1
Pages: 014007
Publication Date: 01/2020

Future changes in climate and socioeconomic systems will drive both the availability and use of water resources, leading to evolutions in scarcity. The contributions of both systems can be quantified individually to understand the impacts around the world, but also combined to explore how the coevolution of energy-water-land systems affects not only the driver behind water scarcity changes, but how human and climate systems interact in tandem to alter water scarcity. Here we investigate the relative contributions of climate and socioeconomic systems on water scarcity under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-Representative Concentration Pathways framework. While human systems dominate changes in water scarcity independent of socioeconomic or climate future, the sign of these changes depend particularly on the socioeconomic scenario. Under specific socioeconomic futures, human-driven water scarcity reductions occur in up to 44% of the global land area by the end of the century.

DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b
Citation:
Graham, N, M Hejazi, M Chen, E Davies, J Edmonds, S Kim, S Turner, et al.  2020.  "Humans Drive Future Water Scarcity Changes Across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways."  Environmental Research Letters 15(1): 014007.  https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b.