Incorporating Variability in Simulations of Seasonally Forced Phenology Using Integral Projection Models

TitleIncorporating Variability in Simulations of Seasonally Forced Phenology Using Integral Projection Models
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2018
AuthorsGoodsman, Devin W., Aukema Brian H., McDowell Nate G., Middleton Richard S., and Xu Chonggang
JournalEcology and Evolution
Volume8
Number1
Pages162-175
Date Published01/2018
Abstract / Summary

Phenology models are becoming increasingly important tools to accurately predict how climate change will impact the life histories of organisms. We propose a class of integral projection phenology models derived from stochastic individual‐based models of insect development and demography. Our derivation, which is based on the rate summation concept, produces integral projection models that capture the effect of phenotypic rate variability on insect phenology, but which are typically more computationally frugal than equivalent individual‐based phenology models. We demonstrate our approach using a temperature‐dependent model of the demography of the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins), an insect that kills mature pine trees. This work illustrates how a wide range of stochastic phenology models can be reformulated as integral projection models. Due to their computational efficiency, these integral projection models are suitable for deployment in large‐scale simulations, such as studies of altered pest distributions under climate change.

URLhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.3590
DOI10.1002/ece3.3590
Journal: Ecology and Evolution
Year of Publication: 2018
Volume: 8
Number: 1
Pages: 162-175
Date Published: 01/2018

Phenology models are becoming increasingly important tools to accurately predict how climate change will impact the life histories of organisms. We propose a class of integral projection phenology models derived from stochastic individual‐based models of insect development and demography. Our derivation, which is based on the rate summation concept, produces integral projection models that capture the effect of phenotypic rate variability on insect phenology, but which are typically more computationally frugal than equivalent individual‐based phenology models. We demonstrate our approach using a temperature‐dependent model of the demography of the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins), an insect that kills mature pine trees. This work illustrates how a wide range of stochastic phenology models can be reformulated as integral projection models. Due to their computational efficiency, these integral projection models are suitable for deployment in large‐scale simulations, such as studies of altered pest distributions under climate change.

DOI: 10.1002/ece3.3590
Citation:
Goodsman, DW, BH Aukema, NG McDowell, RS Middleton, and C Xu.  2018.  "Incorporating Variability in Simulations of Seasonally Forced Phenology Using Integral Projection Models."  Ecology and Evolution 8(1): 162-175, pp. 162-175.  https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.3590.