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Publication Date
1 March 2014

Near-term Limits to Mitigation: Challenges Arising from Contrary Mitigation Effects from Indirect Land-use Change and Sulfur Emissions

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We explore the implications of potentially counteractive greenhouse gas mitigation responses to carbon prices and the complications that could ensue for limiting radiative forcing in the near-term. Specifically we consider the problem of reproducing the radiative forcing pathway for Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP4.5, which stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 Wm−2 (650 ppm CO2-e) under a different terrestrial policy assumption. We show that if indirect land-use change emissions are not priced, carbon prices that can replicate this pathway in the near-term may not exist. We further show that additional complexities could emerge as a consequence of the co-production of CO2 and sulfur emissions as byproducts of fossil fuel combustion.

Calvin, Katherine, Marshall Wise, Leon Clarke, James Edmonds, Andrew Jones, and Allison Thomson. 2014. “Near-Term Limits To Mitigation: Challenges Arising From Contrary Mitigation Effects From Indirect Land-Use Change And Sulfur Emissions ”. Energy Economics 42: 233-239. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2013.09.026.
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