Observed multivariable signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity

TitleObserved multivariable signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2014
Authors, Solomon Susan, Bonfils Céline, Zelinka Mark D., Painter Jeffrey F., Beltran Francisco, Fyfe John C., Johannesson Gardar, Mears Carl, Ridley David, Vernier Jean-Paul, and Wentz Frank J.
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume42
Pages1-10
Date Published12/2014
Abstract / Summary

The relatively muted warming of the surface and lower troposphere since 1998 has attracted considerable attention. One contributory factor to this “warming hiatus” is an increase in volcanically induced cooling over the early 21st century. Here we identify the signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity in multiple observed climate variables. Volcanic signals are statistically discernible in spatial averages of tropical and near-global SST, tropospheric temperature, net clear-sky short-wave radiation, and atmospheric water vapor. Signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic eruptions are also detectable in near-global averages of rainfall. In tropical average rainfall, however, only a Pinatubo-caused drying signal is identifiable. Successful volcanic signal detection is critically dependent on removal of variability induced by the El Nino–Southern Oscillation.

URLhttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL062366/abstract
DOI10.1002/2014GL062366
Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
Year of Publication: 2014
Volume: 42
Pages: 1-10
Date Published: 12/2014

The relatively muted warming of the surface and lower troposphere since 1998 has attracted considerable attention. One contributory factor to this “warming hiatus” is an increase in volcanically induced cooling over the early 21st century. Here we identify the signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity in multiple observed climate variables. Volcanic signals are statistically discernible in spatial averages of tropical and near-global SST, tropospheric temperature, net clear-sky short-wave radiation, and atmospheric water vapor. Signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic eruptions are also detectable in near-global averages of rainfall. In tropical average rainfall, however, only a Pinatubo-caused drying signal is identifiable. Successful volcanic signal detection is critically dependent on removal of variability induced by the El Nino–Southern Oscillation.

DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062366
Citation:
2014.  "Observed multivariable signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity."  Geophysical Research Letters 42: 1-10.  https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062366.