Skip to main content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Publication Date
29 December 2014

Observed multivariable signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity

Authors

Author

The relatively muted warming of the surface and lower troposphere since 1998 has attracted considerable attention. One contributory factor to this “warming hiatus” is an increase in volcanically induced cooling over the early 21st century. Here we identify the signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity in multiple observed climate variables. Volcanic signals are statistically discernible in spatial averages of tropical and near-global SST, tropospheric temperature, net clear-sky short-wave radiation, and atmospheric water vapor. Signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic eruptions are also detectable in near-global averages of rainfall. In tropical average rainfall, however, only a Pinatubo-caused drying signal is identifiable. Successful volcanic signal detection is critically dependent on removal of variability induced by the El Nino–Southern Oscillation.

“Observed Multivariable Signals Of Late 20Th And Early 21St Century Volcanic Activity”. 2014. Geophysical Research Letters 42: 1-10. doi:10.1002/2014GL062366.
Funding Program Area(s)