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Publication Date
31 October 2023

Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity



One of the grand challenges in climate science is to reduce uncertainty in estimates of climate sensitivity, which quantifies how much Earth’s surface warms in response to a doubling of carbon dioxide relative to preindustrial levels. This uncertainty is large because climate sensitivity aggregates myriad processes, from microscale aerosol-cloud interactions to planetary-scale atmospheric and ocean circulations, into one number. Clouds, which are notoriously difficult to measure and simulate, are the main driver of the uncertainty. 

Rugenstein, Maria, Mark D Zelinka, Kristopher B Karnauskas, Paulo Ceppi, and Timothy Andrews. 2023. “Patterns Of Surface Warming Matter For Climate Sensitivity”. Eos 104. American Geophysical Union (AGU). doi:10.1029/2023eo230411.
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