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Publication Date
31 October 2023

Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity

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One of the grand challenges in climate science is to reduce uncertainty in estimates of climate sensitivity, which quantifies how much Earth’s surface warms in response to a doubling of carbon dioxide relative to preindustrial levels. This uncertainty is large because climate sensitivity aggregates myriad processes, from microscale aerosol-cloud interactions to planetary-scale atmospheric and ocean circulations, into one number. Clouds, which are notoriously difficult to measure and simulate, are the main driver of the uncertainty. 

Rugenstein, Maria, Mark D Zelinka, Kristopher B Karnauskas, Paulo Ceppi, and Timothy Andrews. 2023. “Patterns Of Surface Warming Matter For Climate Sensitivity”. Eos 104. American Geophysical Union (AGU). doi:10.1029/2023eo230411.
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