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Publication Date
6 October 2023

Real-time attribution of the influence of climate change on extreme weather events: a storyline case study of Hurricane Ian rainfall



As the Earth continues to warm due to human greenhouse gas emissions, there is a growing need to efficiently communicate the effect that global warming has on individual extreme weather events. Using a storyline approach, we present a rapid attribution of the increase in rainfall over Florida during Hurricane Ian in 2022 due to climate change as a case study. We find that extreme accumulated rainfall amounts associated with Hurricane Ian increased by 18%, far in excess of what would be expected by Clausius–Clapeyron scaling. The study offers a blueprint for rapid operational climate change attribution statements about extreme storms and other very rare weather events.

Reed, Kevin A, and Michael F Wehner. 2023. “Real-Time Attribution Of The Influence Of Climate Change On Extreme Weather Events: A Storyline Case Study Of Hurricane Ian Rainfall”. Environmental Research: Climate 2 (4). IOP Publishing: 043001. doi:10.1088/2752-5295/acfd4e.
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